Match Info

USL League One

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Paradise Coast Sports Complex (Naples, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Naples		One Knoxville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.52	2.78	2.88
	2.71	2.75	3.13
	2.61	2.85	2.97	Watch
	2.5	2.6	2.9
	2.58	2.58	3.08	Watch
	2.55	3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.55)	2.76 ↓ (3)	2.93 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naples
35.5%

Draw
33.2%

One Knoxville
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

30%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

30.1%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naples has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

One Knoxville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naples than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for One Knoxville than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Naples - One Knoxville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delgado L. (C) 4. Glasser M. 5. Mastrantonio L. 22. Yoder J. 3. Cisneros J. 14. O'Connor K. 21. Torrellas M. 23. Mesias A. 11. Garcia C. 18. Bachstein D. 10. Ferrin A.	25. Garibay J. (C) 13. Bull 4. Skelton J. 3. McRobb F. 23. Williams D. 11. Linhares K. 6. Caputo A. 89. Baker T. 21. Zarokostas S. 9. Krioutchenkov D. 7. Diene B.
Substitutes
30. Cerro I. 34. Fitzgerald L. (G) 12. Gay H. 99. Grant J. (G) 7. Gray T. 9. Miglietti G. 8. Osorio J. 31. Rose T.	26. Brown J. 32. Burke J. (G) 17. Goling M. 8. Murphy Jr. J. 22. Perkins W. 72. Rodrigues B. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Krioutchenkov D. ⚽, Baker T. (A),
23', Torrellas M. 🟨,
27', Baker T. ↓, Murphy Jr. J. ↑,
45+4', Bull 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', 0 - 2, Krioutchenkov D. ⚽, Diene B. (A),
57', Garcia C. ↓, Gray T. ↑,
57', Mesias A. ↓, Miglietti G. ↑,
58', Zarokostas S. 🟨,
60', Zarokostas S. ↓, Rodrigues B. P. ↑,
67', Rodrigues B. P. 🟨,
72', Bachstein D. ↓, Gay H. ↑,
79', Williams D. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
79', Linhares K. ↓, Perkins W. ↑,
79', Krioutchenkov D. ↓, Goling M. ↑,
81', Torrellas M. ↓, Osorio J. ↑,
81', Glasser M. ↓, Rose T. ↑,
88', 0 - 3, Diene B. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Naples has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

One Knoxville is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

One Knoxville may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, One Knoxville has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Naples won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Naples won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	One Knoxville ✔	30	14	9	7	49:34	15	51
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34:44	-10	37

Last Results with these Odds

Naples - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.33%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Naples
USL Cup
29.04.26	Miami - Naples	4:1 ✺
USL League One
19.04.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	Naples - Orlando City	0:1 ✺
USL League One
11.04.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Naples - Greenville Triumph	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTLWW
- One Knoxville SC
US Open Cup
29.04.26	Columbus Crew - One Knoxville	4:1 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Tulsa - One Knoxville	1:2 penalties ✺
USL League One
18.04.26	One Knoxville - Charlotte Independence	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	DC United - One Knoxville	3:4 penalties ✺
USL League One
11.04.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - One Knoxville	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
08.11.25	One Knoxville - Naples	1:0
27.08.25	One Knoxville - Naples	0:0
19.04.25	Naples - One Knoxville	0:1

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