Match Info

Coppa Italia - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	Paramount+
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Sport Live
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	Arena 4
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	20 Mediaset, Infinity+, Italia 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Sport Bladet Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 5
Turkey	TRT Spor
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus


	Napoli		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.45	7.9	Watch
	1.46	4.43	8.05
	1.41	4.55	8.36	Watch
	1.4	4	7
	1.47	4.38	8.24
	1.4	4.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	4.33 ↓ (4.39)	7.94 ↓ (8.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Napoli
66.3%

Draw
21.8%

Cagliari
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

21.5%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

20.4%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.3%	0%	9.7%

Napoli - Cagliari Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Napoli (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (28 of 31 users predict this - 90.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.91% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Cagliari (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 31. Beukema S. 5. Juan Jesus (C) 17. Olivera M. 30. Mazzocchi P. 26. Vergara A. 20. Elmas E. 37. Spinazzola L. 21. Politano M. 27. Lucca L. 69. Ambrosino G.	1. Caprile E. (G) 15. Rodriguez J. 33. Obert A. 6. Luperto S. 18. Di Pardo A. 14. Deiola A. 8. Adopo M. 77. Luvumbo Z. 9. Kilicsoy S. 10. Gaetano G. 30. Pavoletti L. (C)
Substitutes
4. Buongiorno A. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. David Neres 22. Di Lorenzo G. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 19. Hojlund R. 70. Lang N. 68. Lobotka S. 8. McTominay S. 13. Rrahmani A.	29. Borrelli G. 21. Cavuoti N. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 94. Esposito Se. 17. Felici M. 36. Grandu N. 3. Idrissi R. 27. Liteta J. 23. Pintus N. 16. Prati M. 31. Radunovic B. (G) 20. Rog M. 38. Sulev I. 37. Trepy Y. 28. Zappa G.
Coaches
Conte A.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Luperto S. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Lucca L. ⚽, Vergara A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Pavoletti L. ↓, Borrelli G. ↑,
55', Kilicsoy S. ↓, Prati M. ↑,
55', Gaetano G. ↓, Esposito Se. ↑,
60', Ambrosino G. ↓, McTominay S. ↑,
61', Rodriguez J. ↓, Idrissi R. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Esposito Se. ⚽,
68', Lucca L. ↓, Hojlund R. ↑,
68', Mazzocchi P. ↓, Buongiorno A. ↑,
74', Olivera M. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
74', Vergara A. ↓, David Neres ↑,
80', Prati M. 🟨,
85', Deiola A. ↓, Felici M. ↑,
Penalties (9 - 8)
1, Obert A. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Politano M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Borrelli G. (Penalty Awarded),
2, McTominay S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Prati M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Lang N. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Felici M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hojlund R. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Esposito Se. (Penalty Awarded),
5, David Neres (Penalty Awarded),
6, Luperto S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Elmas E. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Adopo M. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Milinkovic-Savic V. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Idrissi R. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Spinazzola L. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Di Pardo A. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Juan Jesus (Penalty Awarded),
10, Luvumbo Z. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Buongiorno A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 4.

Napoli is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cagliari is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Cagliari may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Napoli is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Gutierrez M. (Ankle Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Meret A. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Cagliari: Belotti A. (Knee Injury) Pedro J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cagliari: Mazzitelli L. (Muscle Injury) Mina Y. (Contusion)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 15 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 47:11. (average 2.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:8. (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
30.11.25	Roma - Napoli	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Napoli - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Bologna - Napoli	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Napoli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWLT
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
29.11.25	Juventus - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Cagliari - Genoa	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Como - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
03.11.25	Lazio - Cagliari	2:0 ✺
30.10.25	Cagliari - Sassuolo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0
23.05.25	Napoli - Cagliari	2:0
15.09.24	Cagliari - Napoli	0:4
25.02.24	Cagliari - Napoli	1:1
16.12.23	Napoli - Cagliari	2:1
21.02.22	Cagliari - Napoli	1:1
26.09.21	Napoli - Cagliari	2:0

Upcoming Matches