Match Info

Serie A - Round 13

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 3
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Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
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Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
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Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
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Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
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Slovakia	Sport 1
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Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab


	Roma		Napoli

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.8	3	Watch
	2.72	2.82	3.05	Watch
	2.81	2.85	3.14
	2.54	2.87	3.22	Watch
	2.81	2.86	3.07
	2.75	2.75	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.57)	2.83 ↓ (3.06)	3.1 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
35.1%

Draw
33.9%

Napoli
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

31.5%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

31.8%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

The chances for Napoli have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.7%	33.3%	10%

Roma - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Roma will win (votes: 33 - 56.9%). Napoli will win (votes: 6 - 10.3%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 32.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 44.2% – 69.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Tie (votes: 11 - 47.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Roma (1.83) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 13 - 52%). Napoli (votes: 1 - 4%). Tie (votes: 11 - 44%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 19. Celik Z. 17. Kone M. 4. Cristante B. (C) 43. Wesley Franca 18. Soule M. 7. Pellegrini Lo. 11. Ferguson E.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 31. Beukema S. 13. Rrahmani A. 4. Buongiorno A. 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 68. Lobotka S. 8. McTominay S. 17. Olivera M. 7. David Neres 19. Hojlund R. 70. Lang N.
Substitutes
31. Bailey L. 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 21. Dybala P. 8. El Aynaoui N. 92. El Shaarawy S. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D. 12. Tsimikas K. 32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 24. Ziolkowski J.	69. Ambrosino G. 14. Contini N. (G) 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 5. Juan Jesus 27. Lucca L. 35. Marianucci L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 21. Politano M. 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Gritti T.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, David Neres ⚽, Hojlund R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ferguson E. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
55', Cristante B. 🟨,
62', Cristante B. ↓, El Aynaoui N. ↑,
62', Soule M. ↓, Dybala P. ↑,
63', Lobotka S. 🟨,
64', Beukema S. 🟨,
69', Lang N. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
73', Baldanzi T. 🟨,
80', Hojlund R. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
80', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
82', Wesley Franca ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
85', David Neres ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
86', Ndicka E. 🟨,
90+3', El Shaarawy S. 🟨,
90+6', Olivera M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 1.

Roma is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Napoli has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Napoli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Napoli has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Roma: Angelino (Illness) Bove E. (Heart Problems) Dovbyk A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Gutierrez M. (Ankle Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Meret A. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Spinazzola L. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Roma won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:28. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Roma won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Roma - Midtjylland	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
23.11.25	Cremonese - Roma	1:3 ✺
09.11.25	Roma - Udinese	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Glasgow Rangers - Roma	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Milan - Roma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWL
- SSC Napoli
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Napoli - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Bologna - Napoli	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Napoli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.11.25	Napoli - Como	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.02.25	Roma - Napoli	1:1
24.11.24	Napoli - Roma	1:0
28.04.24	Napoli - Roma	2:2
23.12.23	Roma - Napoli	2:0
29.01.23	Napoli - Roma	2:1
23.10.22	Roma - Napoli	0:1
18.04.22	Napoli - Roma	1:1

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