Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Nardo		Virtus Francavilla

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.2	2.82
	2.34	3.07	2.82
	2.28	3.35	2.80	Watch
	2.36	3.08	2.74
	2.34	3.25	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.28)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)	2.79 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nardo
39.1%

Draw
28.4%

Virtus Francavilla
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.3%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

27.2%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Virtus Francavilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus Francavilla than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Nardo - Virtus Francavilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, D'Anna S. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Garnica A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 10).

Recent performances by Nardo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Virtus Francavilla's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Nardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Nardo - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.67%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ACD Nardo
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.11.25	Francavilla - Nardo	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Nardo - Acerrana	4:0 ✺
26.10.25	Fidelis Andria - Nardo	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Heraclea - Nardo	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Nardo - Afragolese	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWTLW
- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.11.25	Virtus Francavilla - Acerrana	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Nola - Virtus Francavilla	3:2 ✺
26.10.25	Virtus Francavilla - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Gravina - Virtus Francavilla	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Virtus Francavilla - Città di Fasano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
27.04.25	Nardo - Virtus Francavilla	1:0

Nardo - Virtus Francavilla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide