Match Info

MLS

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Geodis Park (Nashville, TN)

Referee: Boiko S. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
China	QQ Sports
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Nashville SC		Houston Dynamo

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.9	4.1	Watch
	1.78	3.95	4.3
	1.82	3.95	4.43
	1.09	9.08	27.81	Watch
	1.83	3.97	4.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.53)	4.97 ↑ (4.35)	8.98 ↑ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nashville SC
65.9%

Draw
22%

Houston Dynamo
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

21.6%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

21.3%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nashville SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Houston Dynamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nashville SC than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Nashville SC - Houston Dynamo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Houston (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Nashville (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Houston (3.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nashville SC will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nashville (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Houston (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Willis J. (G) 31. Najar A. 5. Maher J. 4. Palacios J. 2. Lovitz D. 20. Tagseth E. 8. Yazbek P. 19. Muyl A. 10. Mukhtar H. 9. Surridge S. 14. Shaffelburg J.	31. Bond J. (G) 25. Dorsey G. 4. Bartlow E. 28. Sviatchenko E. 36. Felipe Andrade 21. McGlynn J. 6. Artur 30. Junior Urso 9. Lingr O. 10. Ponce E. 11. Ennali L.
Substitutes
6. Acosta B. 22. Bauer J. 11. Boyd T. 7. Brugman G. 12. Bunbury T. 55. O'Brien E. 3. Schmitt T. 99. Schwake B. (G) 25. Zimmerman W.	3. Antonio Carlos 24. Awodesu F. 8. Bassi A. 14. Holmes D. 27. Kowalczyk S. 1. Maurer J. (G) 18. Samassekou D. 17. Segal G. 20. Sergio Santos
Coaches
Callaghan B.	Olsen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Mukhtar H. ⚽, Muyl A. (A),
9', Sviatchenko E. 🟥,
13', Najar A. 🟨,
15', Lingr O. ↓, Awodesu F. ↑,
38', Yazbek P. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Junior Urso ⚽, Ennali L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 2 - 1, Surridge S. ⚽, Lovitz D. (A), Tagseth E. (A2)
50', 3 - 1, Najar A. ⚽,
57', Najar A. ↓, Bauer J. ↑,
57', Yazbek P. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
69', Junior Urso ↓, Bassi A. ↑,
69', Ponce E. ↓, Holmes D. ↑,
77', Surridge S. ↓, Bunbury T. ↑,
77', Mukhtar H. ↓, Boyd T. ↑,
84', Bartlow E. ↓, Sergio Santos ↑,
84', Artur ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
87', Shaffelburg J. ↓, Zimmerman W. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Houston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nashville is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nashville: Gaines J. (Thigh Injury) Meyer W. (Foot Injury) Perez J. (Thigh Injury) Washington T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Houston: Antonio Carlos (Lower-Body Injury) Bartlow E. (Injury) Escobar F. (Illness) Ortiz P. (Yellow Cards) Quinones N. (Lower-Body Injury) Tarbell A. (Knee Injury) Wiesner T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nashville: Qasem A. (Ankle Injury) Zimmerman W. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Nashville won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nashville won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nashville SC
MLS
20.09.25	Orlando City - Nashville SC	3:2 ✺
US Open Cup
16.09.25	Nashville SC - Philadelphia Union	3:1 ✺
MLS
13.09.25	Cincinnati - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Nashville SC - Atlanta United	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Nashville SC - Orlando City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLW
- Houston Dynamo
MLS
20.09.25	Houston Dynamo - Portland Timbers	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Colorado Rapids - Houston Dynamo	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Houston Dynamo - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	St. Louis City - Houston Dynamo	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Houston Dynamo - San Jose Earthquakes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
02.10.22	Nashville SC - Houston Dynamo	1:2
14.05.22	Houston Dynamo - Nashville SC	2:0
14.10.20	Houston Dynamo - Nashville SC	1:3
26.09.20	Nashville SC - Houston Dynamo	1:1

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