Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 23

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Naxxar Lions		Gżira United

	1	X	2
	2.78	3.15	2.3	Watch
	2.79	3.37	2.25
	2.75	3.5	2.29	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.83	3.24	2.28
	2.75	3.2	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 (2.78)	3.26 ↓ (3.3)	2.27 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naxxar Lions
32.5%

Draw
27.7%

Gżira United
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

27.4%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

27.1%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Naxxar Lions have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Gżira United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gżira United than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Naxxar Lions - Gżira United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Debono M. (G) 20. Costa Goncalves G. 10. Farias E. (C) 7. Fenech M. 5. Gustavo Felipe 33. Joao Moura 3. JP Iseppe 18. Letherby D. 19. Rosiel 24. Vinicius Baiano 11. Vitinho	33. Colombo E. (G) 57. Bonilla J. 6. Borg A. 8. Borg B. 7. Martinez S. 10. Maxuell Samurai 3. Mentz G. (C) 23. N’sa C. 14. Riascos L. 96. Stojanovic M. 22. Van de Bovenkamp M.
Substitutes
80. Azzopardi J. (G) 26. Borg J. 17. Bugeja F. 13. Bugeja S. 14. Gauci C. 30. Guehi S. 21. Micallef M. 8. Pace Cocks N. 9. Pahama N. 25. Portelli O. 4. Theo Kruger	5. Abela D. 9. Andre Carlos 19. Bastic S. 28. Cassar N. 11. Farrugia D. 20. Galea K. (G) 25. Ghigo G. 98. Kante 29. Previ A. 1. Sargent K. (G) 30. Xuereb D.
Coaches
Muscat W.	Abdilla D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Borg A. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Vitinho ⚽,
41', Joao Moura 🟨,
45+2', Costa Goncalves G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Martinez S. ↓, Andre Carlos ↑,
46', Mentz G. ↓, Abela D. ↑,
46', Borg A. ↓, Cassar N. ↑,
54', Farias E. ↓, Pahama N. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Maxuell Samurai ⚽,
63', 1 - 2, Andre Carlos ⚽,
68', 2 - 2, Costa Goncalves G. ⚽,
70', Borg B. 🟨,
71', 3 - 2, Pahama N. ⚽,
79', Borg B. ↓, Farrugia D. ↑,
80', Bonilla J. ↓, Bastic S. ↑,
87', Costa Goncalves G. ↓, Guehi S. ↑,
90', Fenech M. 🟨,
90+1', Vinicius Baiano ↓, Theo Kruger ↑,
90+8', 4 - 2, Pahama N. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Naxxar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Gżira has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Naxxar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Gzira	5	0	1	4	2:13	-11	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
14.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Sliema Wanderers	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Hamrun Spartans - Naxxar Lions	4:0 ✺
04.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	5:0 ✺
01.02.26	Valletta - Naxxar Lions	4:2 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
27.01.26	Swieqi United - Naxxar Lions	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWLW
- Gżira United
Maltese Premier League
13.02.26	Gżira United - Valletta	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Gżira United - Floriana	1:2 ✺
03.02.26	Gżira United - Hamrun Spartans	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Gżira United	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Gżira United - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
11.12.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	3:1
03.11.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	2:1
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Naxxar Lions - Gżira United	1:3
Maltese Premier League
28.04.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	0:2
25.01.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	1:0
30.11.24	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	1:1
20.10.24	Naxxar Lions - Gżira United	1:1

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