Match Info

Super League - Round 11

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Istiqlol Stadium (Fergana)

Referee: Suyunboyev X. (Uzb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Tajikistan	Futbol TV


	Neftchi Fargona		Shurtan Guzar

	1	X	2
	1.25	5	9.75
	1.32	4.5	8.6
	1.25	5.34	12.61
	1.32	4.63	8.89	Watch
	1.3	5.02	10
	1.32	4.5	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.32)	4.83 ↑ (4.5)	9.74 ↑ (9.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Fargona
71.4%

Draw
19.1%

Shurtan Guzar
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

20.4%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

19.3%

9.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Fargona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Shurtan Guzar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Fargona than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Shurtan Guzar aligns with the current prediction.

Neftchi Fargona - Shurtan Guzar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Neftchi Fargona (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi Fargona (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ergashev B. (G) 6. Yuldoshev I. 20. Gofurov A. 4. Ciger B. (C) 21. Ubaydullaev M. 11. Ruziev K. 5. Alibaev I. 14. Boltaboev J. 10. Iskanderov J. 22. Tabatadze T. 7. Ismoilov A.	1. Eshbutaev S. (G) 55. Pirmukhamedov A. 4. Khudoyberdiev U. 3. Sultonmurodov S. 15. Mannonov J. 6. Kuziev S. (C) 33. Rahmatov B. 10. Mamasidikov T. 8. Nuriddinov S. 24. Narzullaev D. 45. Kodirov G.
Substitutes
9. Gadoev S. 17. Giyosov M. 28. Karimov N. 32. Marusic Z. 34. Sayfiev F. 77. Toshmirzaev B. 45. Turaev A. (G) 66. Valiev D.	35. Abduraimov S. (G) 5. Abdurazzakov M. 19. Khasanov N. 99. Saidazimov K. 77. Saidkhonov A. 11. Sharipov D. 7. Suvonov B. 14. Toshkuziev A. 27. Tursunkulov C.
Coaches
Levchenko V.	Berdiev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Mannonov J. 🟥,
45+2', 1 - 0, Ciger B. ⚽,
45+4', Kodirov G. ↓, Toshkuziev A. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ubaydullaev M. ↓, Sayfiev F. ↑,
46', Tabatadze T. ↓, Marusic Z. ↑,
46', Eshbutaev S. ↓, Abduraimov S. ↑,
60', Ruziev K. ↓, Toshmirzaev B. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Iskanderov J. ⚽,
67', Boltaboev J. ↓, Giyosov M. ↑,
70', Rahmatov B. ↓, Saidkhonov A. ↑,
70', Mamasidikov T. ↓, Sharipov D. ↑,
76', Ismoilov A. ↓, Gadoev S. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Yuldoshev I. ⚽,
84', 4 - 0, Toshmirzaev B. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Pro Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi Fargona won 1.

Neftchi Fargona is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Shurtan's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Shurtan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Neftchi Fargona is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Neftchi Fargona won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftchi Fargona won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Fargona
Uzbek League
19.05.25	AGMK - Neftchi Fargona	2:2 ✺
09.05.25	Andijan - Neftchi Fargona	0:2 ✺
04.05.25	Neftchi Fargona - Sogdiana Jizzakh	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Neftchi Fargona - Pakhtakor	0:4 ✺
11.04.25	Mashal Mubarek - Neftchi Fargona	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWWLW
- Shurtan Guzar
Uzbek League
17.05.25	Shurtan Guzar - Andijan	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Sogdiana Jizzakh - Shurtan Guzar	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Shurtan Guzar - Dinamo Samarqand	1:3 ✺
27.04.25	Pakhtakor - Shurtan Guzar	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Shurtan Guzar - Mashal Mubarek	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek Cup
16.04.18	Shurtan Guzar - Neftchi Fargona	0:2
Uzbek League
05.08.17	Neftchi Fargona - Shurtan Guzar	1:1
04.03.17	Shurtan Guzar - Neftchi Fargona	1:0
30.04.16	Neftchi Fargona - Shurtan Guzar	2:2
02.08.15	Shurtan Guzar - Neftchi Fargona	4:1
14.03.15	Neftchi Fargona - Shurtan Guzar	1:1
04.08.13	Neftchi Fargona - Shurtan Guzar	2:0

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