Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday


	Negele Arsi Ketema		Fasil Kenema

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.62	3.3
	2.35	2.6	3.54
	2.37	2.65	3.48	Watch
	2.3	2.45	3.4
	2.32	2.6	3.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.17)	2.58 ↓ (2.94)	3.44 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Negele Arsi Ketema
38.8%

Draw
35%

Fasil Kenema
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

31%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

31.7%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Negele Arsi Ketema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Fasil Kenema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fasil Kenema than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Negele Arsi Ketema - Fasil Kenema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 6).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fasil Kenema may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Negele Arsi Ketema won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Negele Arsi Ketema	38	15	15	8	37:30	7	60
4	Fasil Kenema	38	14	13	11	28:28	0	55

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Cup
25.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Sidama Coffee	1:2 ✺
Ethiopian Premier League
19.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Hadiya Hossana	1:1 ✺
13.04.26	Sheger Ketema - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:1 ✺
09.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Adama City - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTTTW
- Fasil Kenema FC
Ethiopian Premier League
18.04.26	Fasil Kenema - Mekelle 70 Enderta	0:3 ✺
14.04.26	Welayta Dicha - Fasil Kenema	0:1 ✺
09.04.26	Fasil Kenema - Hawassa City	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Dire Dawa City - Fasil Kenema	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Fasil Kenema - Mechal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
20.12.25	Fasil Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:0

Negele Arsi Ketema - Fasil Kenema: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide