Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Adama City		Negele Arsi Ketema

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.78	2.3
	3.31	2.79	2.32
	3.33	2.77	2.35	Watch
	3.2	2.63	2.3
	3.05	3.15	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (3.17)	2.82 ↓ (2.95)	2.33 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adama City
28.4%

Draw
32.3%

Negele Arsi Ketema
39.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29%

31.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

29.8%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adama City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Negele Arsi Ketema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adama City than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Adama City - Negele Arsi Ketema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 0 - 1, ⚽,
79', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 3).

Recent performances by Adama City have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Negele Arsi Ketema is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Negele Arsi Ketema could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Adama City won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Negele Arsi Ketema	4	2	2	0	5:1	4	8
8	Adama City	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Adama City - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.01%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adama City FC
Ethiopian Premier League
14.03.26	Ethiopia Bunna - Adama City	3:2 ✺
10.03.26	Adama City - Arba Minch	0:2 ✺
05.03.26	Hadiya Hossana - Adama City	1:1 ✺
26.02.26	Adama City - Sheger Ketema	3:3 ✺
21.02.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Adama City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTTW
- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
15.03.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethio Electric	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Saint George - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:0 ✺
26.02.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Arba Minch - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
20.11.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Adama City	2:1

Adama City - Negele Arsi Ketema