Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday


	Negele Arsi Ketema		Ethiopian Medhin

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.82	2.82
	2.59	2.77	2.84
	2.64	2.76	2.89	Watch
	2.5	2.63	2.88
	2.54	2.76	2.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.02)	2.75 ↓ (2.98)	2.85 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Negele Arsi Ketema
35.3%

Draw
32.9%

Ethiopian Medhin
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

30.9%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

30.4%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Negele Arsi Ketema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Negele Arsi Ketema's form might have worsened.

Ethiopian Medhin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ethiopian Medhin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Negele Arsi Ketema, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ethiopian Medhin than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ethiopian Medhin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopian Medhin Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Negele Arsi Ketema will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Ethiopian Medhin will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
80', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 and 17).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Negele Arsi Ketema could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Negele Arsi Ketema won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ethiopian Insurance	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Negele Arsi Ketema	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
05.04.26	Adama City - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethio Electric	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Saint George - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:0 ✺
26.02.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLTTL
- Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Premier League
04.04.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Arba Minch - Ethiopian Medhin	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Hadiya Hossana	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	Sheger Ketema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Saint George	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
25.11.25	Ethiopian Medhin - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:1

Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopian Medhin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide