Match Info

I Lyga - Round 10

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Neptūnas		Minija Kretinga

	1	X	2
	4.45	3.55	1.65	Watch
	4.52	3.7	1.61
	4.46	3.67	1.68	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.67
	4.41	3.77	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (2.49)	3.6 ↑ (3.23)	1.66 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neptūnas
20.3%

Draw
25.2%

Minija Kretinga
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

28%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

29.3%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Neptūnas's form might have worsened.

Minija Kretinga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Minija Kretinga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Neptūnas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Minija Kretinga than the current prediction. (-20.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Minija Kretinga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Pipiras D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
63', 0 - 2, Pipiras D. ⚽,
81', 0 - 3, Diawara M. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 3, Luksys N. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ TOPLYGA (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 1.

Recent performances by Neptūnas have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Minija is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Neptūnas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Minija will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Neptūnas won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68:13	55	67
4	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
08.05.26	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
22.04.26	Neptūnas - Džiugas Telšiai	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
17.04.26	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLL
- Minija Kretinga
Lithuanian Division 2
09.05.26	Minija Kretinga - Dainava Alytus	3:1 ✺
03.05.26	Transinvest 2 - Minija Kretinga	1:7 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
28.04.26	Minija Kretinga - Sūduva Marijampolė	3:2 penalties ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.26	Minija Kretinga - FA Šiauliai B	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Minija Kretinga	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
27.07.25	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	0:1
15.03.25	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	0:4
20.09.24	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	1:1
03.05.24	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	2:2
12.08.23	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	2:0
24.03.23	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	0:0
15.10.22	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	1:0

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