Match Info

I Lyga - Round 12

Date: 13 June 2025, Friday

Location: Kedainiai Stadium (Kedainiai)


	Nevėžis		Atmosfera Mažeikiai

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.5	3.1
				Watch
	2.06	3.61	2.91
				Watch
	2.08	3.52	2.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.77)	3.54 ↓ (3.75)	3 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nevėžis
44.5%

Draw
25.4%

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

24.2%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

20.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nevėžis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nevėžis's form might have worsened.

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atmosfera Mažeikiai's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nevėžis than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-1%)

Nevėžis - Atmosfera Mažeikiai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Granauskas R. (G) 5. Avizovas U. 13. Berednikovas L. 22. Lukosevicius A. (C) 2. Mockus E. 11. Mohil Y. 30. Monkelis M. 99. Rukuiza K. 20. Traore M. 18. Tymoshenko I. 35. Zuperka R. A.	1. Juska L. (G) 4. Aderounmu K. 15. Bawa M. 17. Fujiyoshi M. 11. Gineitis D. (C) 14. Gritkus E. 7. Horikoshi T. 23. Mantinis K. 19. Oh Se-Sim 6. Pilipavicius A. 20. Srederis N.
Substitutes
7. Ferraz V. 25. Gaizutis D. 97. Macinavicius K. (G) 3. Martinkus N. 14. Mezinis G. 8. Mikuckis R. 37. Petkevicius J. 91. Petkevicius M. 10. Toklikishvili N. 1. Urbonas E. (G)	8. Andriejauskas A. 5. Kazbaras M. 33. Lopez K. (G) 22. Moro I. 9. Najulis K. 2. Stasys M. 71. Ugen L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', 🟨,
27', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', 🟨,
71', 0 - 1, Aderounmu K. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 15 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nevėžis won 3.

Nevėžis has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atmosfera is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Atmosfera has had a series of home games.

Nevėžis might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Nevėžis won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 2.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nevėžis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Nevėžis
Lithuanian Division 2
30.05.25	Nevėžis - Jonava	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	Tauras Tauragė - Nevėžis	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Nevėžis - Neptūnas	0:4 ✺
09.05.25	Babrungas Plungė - Nevėžis	3:2 ✺
02.05.25	BE1 NFA Kaunas - Nevėžis	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLLLW
- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Division 2
31.05.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Tauras Tauragė	1:1 ✺
23.05.25	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BE1 NFA Kaunas	2:4 ✺
03.05.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Transinvest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
10.08.24	Nevėžis - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1
15.03.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Nevėžis	1:2
16.09.22	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Nevėžis	2:2
21.05.22	Nevėžis - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:0
29.08.20	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Nevėžis	0:5
22.06.19	Nevėžis - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	4:0

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