Match Info

I Lyga - Round 9

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Kedainiai Stadium (Kedainiai)


	Nevėžis		Neptūnas

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	1.95
	3.4	3.6	1.88	Watch
	3.37	3.52	1.85
	3.49	3.68	1.89	Watch
	3.52	3.56	1.87
	3.4	3.6	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.7)	3.54 ↓ (3.6)	1.88 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nevėžis
26.6%

Draw
25.5%

Neptūnas
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

24.7%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

24.3%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nevėžis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nevėžis's form might have worsened.

Neptūnas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neptūnas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nevėžis than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nevėžis, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neptūnas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nevėžis - Neptūnas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Urbonas E. (G) 13. Berednikovas L. 22. Lukosevicius A. (C) 14. Mezinis G. 8. Mikuckis R. 2. Mockus E. 11. Mohil Y. 99. Rukuiza K. 20. Traore M. 18. Tymoshenko I. 35. Zuperka R. A.	1. Agalarov A. (G) 3. Badmus O. 10. Diawara H. 95. Elivelton 29. Jurgelevicius D. 9. Rusys M. 24. Shults K. 23. Skurdelis A. (C) 7. Smulkys E. 19. Trakselis A. 11. Zubauskas D.
Substitutes
7. Ferraz V. 38. Gaizutis D. 34. Granauskas R. (G) 91. Petkevicius M. 17. Skibiniauskas V. 37. Tamosiunas L.	33. Ankudinovas A. 74. Herman S. 8. Hevlych T. 15. Jermolajev E. 89. Komza D. (G) 34. Kurakinas A. 27. Laukzemis K. 69. Omokhoa D. 21. Saimon 39. Stonys V. 42. Vaitkus J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
30', Traore M. 🟨,
31', Zubauskas D. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Rusys M. ⚽,
44', Urbonas E. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Elivelton (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
62', 0 - 3, ⚽,
86', 0 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nevėžis won 1.

Recent form of Nevėžis has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Neptūnas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nevėžis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Neptūnas has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Nevėžis won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nevėžis won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.7:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Nevėžis
Lithuanian Division 2
09.05.25	Babrungas Plungė - Nevėžis	3:2 ✺
02.05.25	BE1 NFA Kaunas - Nevėžis	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
29.04.25	Nevėžis - Minija Kretinga	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
26.04.25	Transinvest - Nevėžis	3:1 ✺
18.04.25	Nevėžis - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLL
- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
09.05.25	Neptūnas - Tauras Tauragė	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Neptūnas - Jonava	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
30.04.25	Neptūnas - Kauno Žalgiris	0:1 ET ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.25	Babrungas Plungė - Neptūnas	1:1 ✺
18.04.25	Neptūnas - BE1 NFA Kaunas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
11.10.24	Neptūnas - Nevėžis	0:1
24.05.24	Nevėžis - Neptūnas	0:2
28.10.23	Nevėžis - Neptūnas	0:3
09.06.23	Neptūnas - Nevėžis	0:0
26.08.22	Nevėžis - Neptūnas	2:2
15.04.22	Neptūnas - Nevėžis	1:1

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