Match Info

MLS

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Harrison, NJ)

Referee: Gonzalez G. Jr. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC


	New York Red Bulls		Los Angeles Galaxy

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.6	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4
	2.1	3.6	3.5	Watch
	1.92	3.8	4.12
	2.04	3.67	3.46	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4
	2.07	3.55	3.49	Watch
	2.1	3.6	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.78)	3.58 ↓ (3.73)	3.71 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York Red Bulls
47.7%

Draw
26.6%

Los Angeles Galaxy
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

25.5%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

25.2%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that New York Red Bulls's form might have worsened.

Los Angeles Galaxy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for New York Red Bulls, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Los Angeles Galaxy than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

New York Red Bulls - Los Angeles Galaxy Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. NY Red Bulls will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for NY Red Bulls: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. NY Red Bulls (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - NY Red Bulls (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - LA Galaxy (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. NY Red Bulls (votes: 3 - 75%). LA Galaxy (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Carlos Coronel (G) 6. Duncan K. 15. Nealis S. 3. Eile N. 5. Valencia O. 20. Carballo F. 75. Edelman D. 19. Carmona W. 10. Forsberg E. 37. Sofo M. 13. Choupo-Moting E. M.	77. McCarthy J. (G) 2. Yamane M. 4. Yoshida M. 25. Garces C. 14. Nelson J. 7. Fagundez D. 18. Reus M. 6. Cerrillo E. 3. Aude J. 27. Berry M. 17. Ramirez C.
Substitutes
7. Bogacz W. 44. Edwards R. 22. Gjengaar D. 42. Hack A. 16. Hall J. 17. Harper C. 1. Marcucci A. (G) 26. Parker T. 8. Stroud P.	19. Cuevas M. 21. Lepley T. 12. Marcinkowski J. (G) 9. Matheus Nascimento 1. Micovic N. (G) 16. Parente I. 8. Sanabria L. 22. Wynder E. 15. Zavaleta E.
Coaches
Schwarz S.	Vanney G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Choupo-Moting E. M. ⚽,
10', Garces C. 🟨,
16', 2 - 0, Forsberg E. ⚽, Valencia O. (A),
31', 3 - 0, Choupo-Moting E. M. ⚽, Forsberg E. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Berry M. ↓, Cuevas M. ↑,
46', Nelson J. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
49', Aude J. 🟨,
50', 4 - 0, Forsberg E. ⚽,
64', Reus M. ↓, Wynder E. ↑,
64', Ramirez C. ↓, Matheus Nascimento ↑,
67', Carmona W. ↓, Harper C. ↑,
67', Sofo M. ↓, Gjengaar D. ↑,
67', Edelman D. ↓, Stroud P. ↑,
68', 5 - 0, Harper C. ⚽,
73', Cuevas M. 🟨,
74', Eile N. 🟨,
74', Nealis S. 🟨,
74', Cerrillo E. 🟨,
76', Choupo-Moting E. M. ↓, Bogacz W. ↑,
76', Forsberg E. ↓, Hall J. ↑,
78', Wynder E. 🟨,
81', Fagundez D. ↓, Lepley T. ↑,
88', 6 - 0, Gjengaar D. ⚽, Bogacz W. (A),
90+3', 7 - 0, Yamane M. (Own goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY Red Bulls won 2.

Recent performances by NY Red Bulls have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

LA Galaxy has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

LA Galaxy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, NY Red Bulls is a strong favorite.

There will not play in NY Red Bulls: Mitchell R. (Knee Injury) Morales M. (Thigh Injury) Morgan L. (Knee Injury) Nealis D. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in LA Galaxy: Puig R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in NY Red Bulls: Harper C. (Muscle Injury) Ngoma S. (Back Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, NY Red Bulls won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, NY Red Bulls won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York Red Bulls
US Open Cup
06.05.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - New York Red Bulls	1:4 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Inter Miami - New York Red Bulls	4:1 ✺
26.04.25	New York Red Bulls - CF Montréal	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	New York Red Bulls - DC United	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Orlando City - New York Red Bulls	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLT
- Los Angeles Galaxy
MLS
04.05.25	Sporting Kansas City - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Portland Timbers	2:4 ✺
19.04.25	Austin FC - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Houston Dynamo	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
08.04.25	Tigres UANL - Los Angeles Galaxy	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
07.12.24	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York Red Bulls	2:1
Club Friendly
13.02.22	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York Red Bulls	2:1
MLS
25.04.21	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York Red Bulls	3:2
04.05.19	New York Red Bulls - Los Angeles Galaxy	3:2
28.04.18	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York Red Bulls	2:3
14.05.17	New York Red Bulls - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:3
07.08.16	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York Red Bulls	2:2

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