Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Wolverhampton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8.5
	1.4	4.8	7.75
	1.36	5.2	8.8
	1.41	5.01	7.82
	1.13	7.72	21.81	Watch
	1.44	4.5	6.5
	1.38	5.04	8.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.46)	5.32 ↑ (4.72)	9.96 ↑ (6.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
71.9%

Draw
18.3%

Wolverhampton Wanderers
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

20.4%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

15.6%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Wolverhampton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-21.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolverhampton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wolverhampton Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.5%	5.8%	7.7%

Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (44 of 51 users predict this - 86.27%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.82% – 95.72%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 5. Schar F. 33. Burn D. 21. Livramento V. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 11. Barnes H.	31. Johnstone S. (G) 15. Mosquera Y. 12. Agbadou E. 24. Toti (C) 21. Gomes R. 37. Krejci L. 7. Andre 8. Joao Gomes 3. Bueno H. 14. Arokodare T. 11. Hwang Hee-Chan
Substitutes
4. Botman S. 20. Elanga A. 3. Hall L. 17. Krafth E. 67. Miley L. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 12. Thiaw M. 28. Willock J.	10. Arias J. 27. Bellegarde J. 25. Bentley D. (G) 4. Bueno S. 2. Doherty M. 28. Lopez F. 5. Munetsi M. 38. Tchatchoua J. 6. Wolfe D. M.
Coaches
Howe E.	Pereira V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Krejci L. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Woltemade N. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
31', Andre 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
65', Joelinton ↓, Willock J. ↑,
66', Andre ↓, Munetsi M. ↑,
66', Arokodare T. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
66', Mosquera Y. ↓, Bellegarde J. ↑,
67', Munetsi M. 🟨,
68', Joao Gomes 🟨,
77', Hwang Hee-Chan ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
77', Gomes R. ↓, Tchatchoua J. ↑,
80', Barnes H. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
88', Bruno Guimaraes 🟨,
90+5', Murphy J. ↓, Botman S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 4.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Recently, Wolverhampton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Newcastle is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Gordon A. (Red Card) Ramsey J. (Ankle Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Wolverhampton: Chiwome L. (Knee Injury) Gonzalez E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Wolverhampton: Bueno H. (Knock) Hoever K. (Knee Injury) Larsen J. S. (Calf Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Newcastle United - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Newcastle United - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Newcastle United - Espanyol	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLT
- Wolverhampton Wanderers
English Premier League
30.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Everton	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - West Ham United	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Bournemouth - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
15.01.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0
15.09.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	1:2
02.03.24	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0
28.10.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	2:2
12.03.23	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1
28.08.22	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	1:1
08.04.22	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0

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