Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Elland Road (Leeds) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Salisbury M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:30	Solh Sports 1
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 3
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Bangladesh	01:00	Toffee Live
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 1
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN 2
Brazil	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	See, Viaplay
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN 2
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	22:00	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 1, CANAL+ Sport
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	21:00	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	22:00	Nova Sports Premier League, Nova Sports Prime
Haiti	15:00	Canal+ Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	21:00	Match 4, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport
India	00:30	Disney+ Hotstar, JioStar, JioTV app, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	02:00	Vidio
Ireland	20:00	NOW
Israel	22:00	Sport 1
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	04:00	U-NEXT
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	03:00	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	13:00	FOX One, FOX Sports
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	00:45	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	07:00	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	20:00	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Paraguay	15:00	ESPN 2
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	03:00	Setanta Sports
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	22:00	Voyo
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	03:00	Hub Premier 1
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Premier League
South Korea	04:00	Coupang Play
Spain	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Suriname	16:00	SCCN
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	21:00	Sky Sport Premier League
Taiwan	03:00	ELTA Sports 1
Turkey	22:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
United Kingdom	20:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	NBC Universo, NBC, SiriusXM FC, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo, USA Network
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	FPT Play


	Leeds United		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	3
	2.25	3.50	3.00
	2.32	3.4	3.05
	2.34	3.55	3.18
	2.26	3.72	3.12	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3.1
	2.35	3.62	3.19	Watch
	2.31	3.55	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.39)	3.56 ↑ (3.54)	3.09 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
41.9%

Draw
27%

Newcastle United
31.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.8%

26.8%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

26.6%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39%	51.2%	9.8%

Leeds United - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 16 - 39%). Newcastle will win (votes: 4 - 9.8%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 51.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 66.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 40%). Newcastle (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Newcastle (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.71) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

DC - Newcastle (1.62) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Leeds (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.56) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.25 - under (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Cards O/U 4 - over (1.82) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Newcastle (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trafford J. (G) 24. Justin J. 30. Elvedi N. 5. Muharemovic T. 2. Bogle J. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	21. Hornicek L. (G) 37. Dedic A. 12. Thiaw M. (C) 4. Botman S. 3. Hall L. 67. Miley L. 6. Nico 23. Murphy J. 20. Fernandez-Pardo M. 11. Barnes H. 9. Wissa Y.
Substitutes
11. Aaronson B. 23. Bahoya J. 26. Bard M. 15. Bijol J. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 14. Nmecha L. 10. Wilson H. 16. Zetterer M. (G)	8. Bamba A. 2. Livramento V. 76. Miley M. 1. Pope N. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 5. Schar F. 14. Steur S. 17. Toure B. 28. Willock J.
Coaches
Farke D.	Jaissle M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
19', Nico ↓, Steur S. ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Miley L. (Own goal),
34', 2 - 0, Bogle J. ⚽, Calvert-Lewin D. (A),
44', Calvert-Lewin D. 🟨,
45+1', 3 - 0, Calvert-Lewin D. ⚽, Muharemovic T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Murphy J. 🟨,
57', Murphy J. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
57', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
58', Dedic A. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
59', 4 - 0, Okafor N. ⚽,
72', Okafor N. ↓, Wilson H. ↑,
72', Tanaka A. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
72', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Bard M. ↑,
78', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
80', Miley L. ↓, Bamba A. ↑,
83', Bogle J. ↓, James D. ↑,
88', Stach A. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
90', 4 - 1, Toure B. ⚽,
90+1', Livramento V. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 0.

Recent performances by Leeds have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Newcastle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Leeds has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Leeds: Joseph M. (Knee Injury) Rodon J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Burn D. (Ankle Injury) Joelinton (Thigh Injury) Osula W. (Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Jaouen E. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leeds	8	2	5	1	9:6	3	11
8	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	12:14	-2	11

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.59%

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 33.41%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English League Cup
09.09.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	6:3 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Leeds United - Brentford	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LTTWW
- Newcastle United
English League Cup
08.09.26	Millwall - Newcastle United	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.26	Newcastle United - West Bromwich Albion	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.26	Newcastle United - Liverpool	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0
13.05.23	Leeds United - Newcastle United	2:2
31.12.22	Newcastle United - Leeds United	0:0
22.01.22	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:1
17.09.21	Newcastle United - Leeds United	1:1
26.01.21	Newcastle United - Leeds United	1:2

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