Match Info

Stars League - Round 19

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday


	Newroz		Najaf

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4.25
	1.76	3.15	4.48
	1.78	3.22	4.51
	1.8	2.9	4.4
	1.74	3.1	4.91
	1.84	3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.74)	3.06 ↓ (3.3)	4.46 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newroz
50.3%

Draw
29.5%

Najaf
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

28.2%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

21.6%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newroz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Najaf has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newroz than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newroz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Najaf than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Newroz - Najaf Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
70', Harouna I. 🟥,
80', 1 - 0, Mohammed I. ⚽,
90+6', 2 - 0, Ridha Jalil M. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Newroz has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Najaf has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Najaf may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newroz is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Newroz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newroz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Newroz	8	4	3	1	13:4	9	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newroz Sulaymaniyah
Iraqi Premier League
13.02.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Newroz	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Al Mosul - Newroz	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Newroz - Diyala	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Newroz - Al-Karma	0:1 ✺
22.01.26	Al-Karkh - Newroz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWLL
- Najaf
Iraqi Premier League
14.02.26	Najaf - Al-Kahraba	1:2 ✺
05.02.26	Najaf - Al-Qasim	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Najaf	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Najaf - Zakho	1:2 ✺
22.01.26	Al-Zawraa - Najaf	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
08.05.25	Najaf - Newroz	0:1
25.10.24	Newroz - Najaf	2:1
23.06.24	Newroz - Najaf	0:3
24.11.22	Najaf - Newroz	2:1

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