Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 3

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Janio Moraes (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere


	Nova Iguaçu		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	5.7	3.5	1.62
	6.03	3.54	1.61
	5.5	3.2	1.6
	5.8	3.38	1.58
	6.33	3.75	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↓ (6.03)	3.47 ↓ (3.63)	1.6 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
15.7%

Draw
26.5%

Fluminense
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

25.5%

59.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Nova Iguaçu - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nova Iguaçu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Mota (G) 4. Yan Silva 2. Davi Soares 6. Sidney Pages (C) 3. Wender 7. Xandinho 8. Leo Rafael 5. Jorge Pedra 11. Lucas Cruz 10. Rickelme Lopes 9. Leo David	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 32. Acosta L. 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 10. PH Ganso 15. Matheus Reis 9. Everaldo
Substitutes
20. Alexandre Balbino 13. Arthur Neves 12. Arthur Vidal (G) 14. Augusto 22. Iago Lacerda 19. Luan Capanni 1. Matheus Miranda (G) 21. Pedro Silva 15. Pedro Thomaz 18. Thomasel 17. Vini Charopem 16. Ze Gabriel	5. Bernal F. 23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 21. Igor Rabello 3. Jemmes 99. John Kennedy 45. Lima 16. Nonato 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 90. Serna K. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Carlos Vitor	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Rickelme Lopes 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Leo David ⚽, Rickelme Lopes (A),
45+1', Acosta L. 🟨,
45+5', Sidney Pages 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Matheus Reis ↓, Serna K. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Serna K. ⚽, Martinelli (A),
58', 1 - 2, Everaldo ⚽, Samuel Xavier (A),
62', Leo Rafael ↓, Iago Lacerda ↑,
63', Leo David ↓, Luan Capanni ↑,
68', Sidney Pages 🟨,
71', Acosta L. ↓, Nonato ↑,
71', Everaldo ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
71', Rickelme Lopes ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Jorge Pedra ⚽,
79', 2 - 3, Serna K. ⚽,
81', PH Ganso ↓, Lima ↑,
81', Samuel Xavier ↓, Guga ↑,
84', Xandinho ↓, Alexandre Balbino ↑,
84', Jorge Pedra ↓, Pedro Thomaz ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nova Iguaçu won 0.

Fluminense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nova Iguaçu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fluminense is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nova Iguaçu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nova Iguaçu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.7:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
18.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
15.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Nova Iguaçu	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
27.08.25	Nova Iguaçu - Araruama	1:2 penalties ✺
23.08.25	Araruama - Nova Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Nova Iguaçu - Olaria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWLTW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
17.01.26	Boavista - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Fluminense - Madureira	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.12.25	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 penalties ✺
11.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.02.25	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	2:0
28.01.24	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	3:0
17.01.23	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	1:0
16.02.22	Nova Iguaçu - Fluminense	0:1
11.04.21	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	3:1
11.03.18	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	2:1
19.03.17	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	1:3

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