Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/32-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Janio Moraes (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	19:00	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Nova Iguaçu		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	5.5	2.82	1.81	Watch
	4	3.1	1.85
	4.75	2.98	1.88	Watch
	5.1	3.01	1.87
	4.65	2.87	1.98	Watch
	4.6	2.88	1.91
	5.44	2.85	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.86 ↑ (3.85)	2.93 ↓ (3.3)	1.88 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
19%

Draw
31.6%

Fortaleza
49.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.8%

27.8%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

27.2%

49.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Nova Iguaçu - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nova Iguaçu will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Nova Iguaçu (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nova Iguaçu (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Mota (G) 2. Davi Soares 6. Guilherme Kayron 11. Iago Lacerda 5. Jorge Pedra 8. Leo Rafael 10. Lucas Cruz 9. Vini Charopem 3. Wender 7. Xandinho 4. Yan Silva	12. Brenno (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 18. Fuentes G. 3. Gazal 88. Lucas Sasha 32. Luiz Fernando 22. Mailton 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 7. Pochettino T. 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Balbino 13. Arthur Neves 14. Augusto 16. Daniel Zavoli 21. Joao Pedro 23. Leo David 22. Luan Capanni 1. Matheus Miranda (G) 15. Pedro Thomaz 20. Rickelme Lopes 18. Weverton 17. Ze Gabriel	4. Luan Freitas 38. Lucca Prior 19. Luquinhas 9. Miritello J. B. 33. Rocha K. 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+4', Xandinho 🟨,
45+4', Fuentes G. 🟨,
45+6', 0 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pierre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
46', Vitinho ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,
58', Paulo Baya ↓, Welliton ↑,
61', Mailton 🟨,
66', Vini Charopem ↓, Weverton ↑,
66', Iago Lacerda ↓, Leo David ↑,
78', Wender ↓, Arthur Neves ↑,
78', Jorge Pedra ↓, Rickelme Lopes ↑,
81', Pochettino T. ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
81', Luiz Fernando ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
89', Leo Rafael ↓, Pedro Thomaz ↑,
89', Gazal 🟨,
90+5', Pedro Thomaz 🟨,

Preview

Nova Iguaçu is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fortaleza is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fortaleza is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 48.46%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Castanhal - Nova Iguaçu	0:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.26	Nova Iguaçu - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Nova Iguaçu - Lagarto	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.26	Maricá - Nova Iguaçu	2:2 ✺
26.02.26	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWTT
- Fortaleza EC
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Manauara - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.03.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:2 penalties ✺
01.03.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
24.02.26	Fortaleza - Maguary	4:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
21.02.26	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTWW

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