Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/64-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho (Castanhal) 🌤️ ...


	Castanhal		Nova Iguaçu

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3.1
	2.52	2.88	2.98
	2.48	2.91	3.07
	2.45	2.96	2.94	Watch
	2.5	2.75	3
	2.39	3.02	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.96)	2.94 ↑ (2.76)	3.02 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castanhal
37.7%

Draw
31.6%

Nova Iguaçu
30.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.9%

33.1%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

33.7%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castanhal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castanhal's performance.

Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nova Iguaçu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castanhal than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castanhal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Castanhal - Nova Iguaçu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	31. Mota (G)
	2. Davi Soares
	6. Guilherme Kayron
	11. Iago Lacerda
	5. Jorge Pedra
	8. Leo Rafael
	10. Lucas Cruz
	9. Vini Charopem
	3. Wender
	7. Xandinho
	4. Yan Silva
Substitutes
	13. Arthur Neves
	16. Daniel Zavoli
	17. Luan Capanni
	1. Matheus Miranda (G)
	14. Pedro Thomaz
	15. Rickelme Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
20', 0 - 1, Vini Charopem ⚽,
23', 🟨,
29', 0 - 2, Leo Rafael ⚽,
34', 0 - 3, Vini Charopem ⚽,
37', 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 4, Iago Lacerda ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', 🟨,
50', 🟨,

Preview

Castanhal has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nova Iguaçu is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nova Iguaçu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castanhal EC
Brazilian Copa Grao Para
07.03.26	Castanhal - Capitão Poço	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	1:0 penalties ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Castanhal - Guarani	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
22.02.26	Paysandu - Castanhal	1:0 ✺
19.02.26	Capitão Poço - Castanhal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWWLW
- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.26	Nova Iguaçu - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Nova Iguaçu - Lagarto	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.26	Maricá - Nova Iguaçu	2:2 ✺
26.02.26	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Nova Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWTTT

Castanhal - Nova Iguaçu