Match Info

Gaucho - Round 4

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Estrela d'Alva (Bage)


	Guarany de Bagé		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.75	1.55	Watch
	4.75	3.5	1.66
	5.3	3.7	1.58	Watch
	5.54	3.84	1.59	Watch
	5.5	3.4	1.53
	5.79	3.45	1.57	Watch
	6	3.4	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.45 ↑ (4.57)	3.58 ↑ (3.23)	1.58 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarany de Bagé
16.8%

Draw
25.5%

Grêmio
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

28.1%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio's recent form is better than expected.

Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Grêmio (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jonathan (G) 2. Talles 3. Michel Bennech 4. Bruno Cardoso 5. David Cunha (C) 17. Marcao 8. Murilo 22. Raphinha 10. Welder 11. Tony Junior 20. Adailson	1. Weverton (G) 18. Joao Pedro 43. Luis Eduardo 44. Viery 38. Caio Paulista 8. Edenilson 17. Dodi 47. Roger 88. Willian (C) 99. Enamorado J. 77. Andre Henrique
Substitutes
13. Alberte 16. Allan 18. Hiago Lucas 14. Igor Souza 6. Jean Carlos 15. Jean Martim 9. Lucao 7. Marquinhos 19. Paulinho Souza 12. Thiago Goncalves (G) 21. Valter Bala	16. Aravena A. 95. Carlos Vinicius 6. Cuellar G. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 40. Jefinho 14. Marcos Rocha 23. Marlon 19. Noriega E. 65. Riquelme 39. Tiago 3. Wagner Leonardo
Coaches
Wiliam Campos	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Adailson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Michel Bennech 🟨,
50', Michel Bennech 🟥,
52', Adailson ↓, Alberte ↑,
57', Joao Pedro 🟨,
61', Andre Henrique ↓, Carlos Vinicius ↑,
61', Enamorado J. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
62', Roger ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
72', Dodi ↓, Jefinho ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Gabriel Mec (A),
78', Jefinho 🟨,
80', Joao Pedro ↓, Marcos Rocha ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Edenilson ⚽,
85', Tony Junior ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
85', Raphinha ↓, Allan ↑,
85', David Cunha ↓, Vitor Oliveira ↑,
87', Allan 🟨,

Preview

Grêmio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guarany de Bagé may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Grêmio is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Guarany de Bagé won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
18.01.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	4:1 ✺
15.01.26	Ypiranga - Guarany de Bagé	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Guarany de Bagé - Joinville	2:1 ✺
20.07.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Guarany de Bagé	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTTWT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
17.01.26	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0 ✺
14.01.26	Grêmio - EC São José Porto Alegre	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Avenida - Grêmio	0:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Sport Recife - Grêmio	0:4 ✺
02.12.25	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
02.03.24	Grêmio - Guarany de Bagé	4:1
06.02.22	Grêmio - Guarany de Bagé	2:0

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