Match Info

KENYA: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 15

Date: 17 December 2023, Sunday


	Nzoia United		Tusker

	1	X	2
	2.93	2.76	2.29
	2.8	2.88	2.25
	3.1	2.88	2.32
	3.1	2.85	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.6)	2.84 ↓ (3)	2.3 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nzoia United
29.9%

Draw
31.4%

Tusker
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.8%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

30.4%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nzoia United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nzoia United than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nzoia United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

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Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nzoia United won 1.

Nzoia United is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Tusker is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tusker could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Tusker will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Nzoia United won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 15-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Nzoia United won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nzoia United
Kenyan Premier League
09.12.23	Gor Mahia - Nzoia United	2:2 ✺
03.12.23	Nzoia United - Sofapaka	1:3 ✺
26.11.23	Nzoia United - Police FC	1:3 ✺
11.11.23	Shabana - Nzoia United	2:1 ✺
04.11.23	Nzoia United - Kariobangi Sharks	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TLLLW
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
13.12.23	Bidco United - Tusker	2:3 ✺
10.12.23	Tusker - Posta Rangers	0:0 ✺
04.12.23	AFC Leopards - Tusker	0:0 ✺
11.11.23	Tusker - Nairobi City Stars	3:1 ✺
05.11.23	Muranga Seal - Tusker	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
22.04.23	Nzoia United - Tusker	1:0
14.01.23	Tusker - Nzoia United	0:0
22.05.22	Tusker - Nzoia United	2:2
19.12.21	Nzoia United - Tusker	0:1
23.02.21	Tusker - Nzoia United	2:1
02.11.19	Tusker - Nzoia United	3:2
12.05.19	Tusker - Nzoia United	1:1

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