Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	AFC Leopards		Tusker

	1	X	2
	2.18	2.78	3.4
	2.09	2.93	3.95
	2.34	2.55	3.66	Watch
	2.1	2.63	3.7
	2.24	2.56	3.78
	1.88	2.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.05)	2.7 ↓ (3)	3.78 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Leopards
42.4%

Draw
33.6%

Tusker
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

30.5%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

30.4%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Leopards has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Tusker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Leopards than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

AFC Leopards - Tusker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leopards won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Leopards may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Leopards might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leopards won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leopards won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Leopards	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Leopards - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.63%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Leopards
Kenyan Premier League
18.03.26	AFC Leopards - Nairobi United	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Mathare United - AFC Leopards	4:1 ✺
01.03.26	AFC Leopards - Shabana	5:1 ✺
26.02.26	Kenya CB - AFC Leopards	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	AFC Leopards - Posta Rangers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWLW
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
15.03.26	Tusker - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Tusker	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Tusker - Muranga Seal	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Shabana - Tusker	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Mathare United - Tusker	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
11.01.26	Tusker - AFC Leopards	0:4
03.05.25	Tusker - AFC Leopards	0:0
11.12.24	AFC Leopards - Tusker	4:1
10.03.24	Tusker - AFC Leopards	1:0
04.12.23	AFC Leopards - Tusker	0:0
05.04.23	AFC Leopards - Tusker	0:1
04.12.22	Tusker - AFC Leopards	1:0

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