Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 23

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday


	Ogre United		JDFS Alberts

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.9	2.35
	2.05	4.05	2.80	Watch
	2.36	3.74	2.39
	2.4	3.8	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.02)	3.87 ↓ (4)	2.47 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
39.8%

Draw
23.4%

JDFS Alberts
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

22.7%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

22.2%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ogre United's form might have worsened.

JDFS Alberts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ogre United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JDFS Alberts than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for JDFS Alberts, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ogre United - JDFS Alberts Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perkons E. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 4. Mamich D. 3. Marusiy T. 16. Mashchenko V. 9. Silagailis H. 88. Stepanovs V. 2. Ziemelis R.	1. Malins G. (G) 4. Aditajs R. 14. Andersons K. 5. Indrans D. 8. Maksimovs K. 20. Marusii M. 12. Ozolins R. 2. Romanovs K. 21. Suffian K. 7. Viksna H. 17. Zegele M.
Substitutes
20. Grigorjevs D. (G) 30. Hvoinickis D. 19. Jamonts K. 14. Juhnovics R. 15. Licis K. 11. Pacepko M. 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 22. Sprukulis K.	10. Brahmanis M. 22. Guliaks R. 30. Jautaikis K. (G) 18. Penka R. 11. Pirktins K. 23. Prohorenkovs M. 3. Spade M. 25. Sticenko K. 37. Zageris D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Viksna H. 🟨,
43', Marusii M. 🟨,
43', Mashchenko V. 🟨,
44', Andersons K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Silagailis H. 🟥,
63', Stepanovs V. ↓, Jamonts K. ↑,
71', Zegele M. ↓, Prohorenkovs M. ↑,
71', Suffian K. ↓, Brahmanis M. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Mashchenko V. ⚽,
87', Pacepko M. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Marusii M. ⚽,
90+1', Romanovs K. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Virsliga and 3).

Ogre United has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

JDFS Alberts is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ogre United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ogre United has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
27.09.25	Ogre United - Smiltene	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Ogre United - Riga Mariners	3:0 ✺
14.09.25	Ogre United - Augšdaugavas	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Tukums 2000 2 - Ogre United	0:7 ✺
23.08.25	Ogre United - Rēzekne	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW
- JDFS Alberts
Latvian 1 Liga
05.10.25	JDFS Alberts - JFK Ventspils	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Olaine - JDFS Alberts	1:6 ✺
20.09.25	JDFS Alberts - Leevon PPK	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Mārupe - JDFS Alberts	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	JDFS Alberts - Skanstes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
15.06.25	JDFS Alberts - Ogre United	2:2
17.08.24	JDFS Alberts - Ogre United	3:1
20.04.24	Ogre United - JDFS Alberts	0:3

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