Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Romero B. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo San Lorenzo		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	7.00	4.75	1.33
	7.50	4.60	1.32
	8.00	4.70	1.34	Watch
	9.46	5.30	1.32
	7.16	4.63	1.41	Watch
	9.35	5.10	1.30
	7.43	4.35	1.42	Watch
	7.40	4.60	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.91 ↑ (6.5)	4.75 ↑ (4.1)	1.34 ↓ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo San Lorenzo
11.7%

Draw
19.5%

Olimpia Asuncion
68.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.1%

22.3%

63.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.9%

22%

64.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olimpia Asuncion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Olimpia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Quinonez W. (G) 29. Garcia M. 19. Caceres L. 4. Doldan J. 20. Meza Montiel D. 8. Amarilla R. 16. Benitez A. 32. Aragon F. 28. Gerzel G. 23. Ferreira M. 7. Salcedo S. (C)	1. Olveira G. (G) 27. Caceres R. 22. Vera J. 15. Gamarra M. 30. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 5. Alfaro J. F. 6. Ortiz R. (C) 35. Alfonso F. 7. Cardozo F. 9. Avalos G. 37. Benitez R.
Substitutes
18. Alvarez A. 9. Barrios J. 26. Duarte J. 2. Esteche L. 25. Fernandez K. 22. Ferreira Gonzalez K. 31. Franco L. (G) 13. Fretes I. 21. Gonzalez H. 15. Pinatares B. 14. Salcedo J. 6. Villamayor H.	2. Bentaberry B. 11. Ferreira S. 8. Franco Zayas A. F. 10. Gonzalez D. 12. Lentinelly S. (G) 23. Matus E. 4. Payne T. 17. Redes R. 31. Romero B. 26. Sanchez R. 34. Sandoval H. 14. Vargas G.
Coaches
Fornasari P.	Sanchez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', 0 - 1, Vera J. ⚽, Rodriguez Armoa A. F. (A),
39', Ortiz R. 🟨,
45+4', Benitez A. 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 2, Avalos G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Garcia M. 🟨,
56', Amarilla R. ↓, Fernandez K. ↑,
56', Benitez A. ↓, Gonzalez H. ↑,
62', Cardozo F. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
66', Ferreira M. ↓, Duarte J. ↑,
67', Salcedo S. ↓, Barrios J. ↑,
68', Avalos G. ↓, Sandoval H. ↑,
69', Alfonso F. ↓, Romero B. ↑,
69', Alfaro J. F. ↓, Redes R. ↑,
70', Vera J. 🟨,
83', Gerzel G. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
84', Benitez R. ↓, Matus E. ↑,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 12th and 4th).

Sportivo San Lorenzo has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Olimpia is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Sportivo San Lorenzo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Olimpia enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Olimpia in today's match, at odds of 1.37.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo San Lorenzo has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:1 (averaging 1:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sportivo San Lorenzo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals (averaging 1:0 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	13	8	2	3	22:10	12	26
12	San Lorenzo	13	0	3	10	4:22	-18	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo San Lorenzo
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Nacional Asuncion	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Copa Paraguay
26.08.26	Cristóbal Colón FC - Olimpia Asuncion	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0
08.03.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1
Copa Paraguay
19.07.23	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0 penalties

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