Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (Asunción)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Olimpia Asuncion		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.10	3.10	3.10
	2	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.51	4.14
	2.09	3.55	3.28	Watch
	1.98	3.35	3.8
	1.94	3.57	3.65	Watch
	1.97	3.35	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.9)	3.39 ↑ (3.35)	3.5 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpia Asuncion
46.3%

Draw
27.3%

Nacional Asuncion
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

27.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

26.3%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpia Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Olimpia will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lentinelly S. (G) 27. Caceres R. 22. Vera J. 15. Gamarra M. (C) 23. Matus E. 7. Cardozo F. 5. Alfaro J. F. 20. Delmas E. 19. Lezcano R. 9. Avalos G. 35. Alfonso F.	1. Ortiz G. (G) 23. Espinola C. 22. Melgarejo R. 3. Coronel M. 29. Vargas S. 8. Jara F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 33. Gaona Lugo O. (C) 13. Meza L. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 7. Bailone I.
Substitutes
24. Caballero Fleytas T. I. 16. Dominguez J. 11. Ferreira S. 4. Payne T. 18. Quintana S. 17. Redes R. 26. Sanchez R. 34. Sandoval H. 14. Vargas G. 3. Vargas J. 13. Verza Martinez L. A. (G) 33. Zarza P.	20. Arguello R. 5. Benitez G. 39. Caballero D. 19. Gonzales L. 32. Pumpido F. 28. Samudio A. 24. Santa C. R. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 6. Torales S. 18. Valdez I. 38. Vega T. 35. Villar E. (G)
Coaches
Sanchez P.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Gaona Lugo O. ⚽, Bailone I. (A),
22', Alfaro J. F. 🟨,
23', Espinola C. 🟨,
45+3', Ortiz G. ↓, Villar E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lezcano R. ↓, Sandoval H. ↑,
55', Sandoval H. 🟨,
58', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Valdez I. ↑,
58', Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↓, Benitez G. ↑,
61', Cardozo F. ↓, Redes R. ↑,
61', Alfonso F. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
70', Alfaro J. F. ↓, Zarza P. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Sandoval H. ⚽, Sanchez R. (A),
76', Caceres R. ↓, Payne T. ↑,
76', Bailone I. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
76', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,
90', Melgarejo R. 🟨,
90+1', Avalos G. 🟨,
90+4', Sanchez P. 🟨,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 3rd and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Olimpia won 2.

Olimpia has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Nacional have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Olimpia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Olimpia has recorded 3 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:27 (averaging 0.9:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Olimpia against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:13 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	13	8	2	3	22:10	12	26
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23

Last Results with these Odds

Olimpia Asuncion - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 48.38%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpia Asuncion
Copa Paraguay
01.10.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWWW
- Nacional Asuncion
Copa Paraguay
30.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
29.07.26	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:0
04.04.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:0
08.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2
14.09.25	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	4:1
06.07.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
25.05.25	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1
22.03.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1

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