Match Info

Torneo Federal - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti (Bahía Blanca)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	DGO Latin America
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Olimpo Bahia Blanca		Atlético de Rafaela

	1	X	2
	2.16	2.81	3.65
	2.67	2.10	4.43	Watch
	2.05	2.85	3.84
	1.81	3.14	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.82)	2.73 ↓ (3.16)	4.06 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
42.9%

Draw
34.2%

Atlético de Rafaela
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

28.8%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

28.2%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpo Bahia Blanca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olimpo Bahia Blanca's form might have worsened.

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpo Bahia Blanca than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lungarzo J. (G) 11. Coacci E. 6. Ferreyra M. (C) 8. Groba G. 3. Kucich M. 2. Moiraghi N. 5. Pavon A. 7. Prost M. 10. Ramirez D. 9. Villacorta F. 4. Vivas J.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 10. Affranchino F. 9. Albertengo L. 2. Fernandez G. 5. Jaime D. 7. Leineker C. 8. Marquez E. 4. Martinez M. 11. Pastorelli A. 6. Utrera N. 3. Wuattier E. R.
Substitutes
18. Espejo L. 16. Gallegos E. 12. Ibanez M. (G) 20. Murialdo A. 17. Ojeda M. 13. Oneto T. 14. Perez F. 19. Tarifa G. 15. Villagra N.	20. Aquino D. 12. Bergia M. (G) 17. Marchiori T. 18. Miranda B. 14. Morales L. 16. Ontivero L. 19. Protti I. 13. Stizza J. 15. Varela N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', 🟨,
43', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', 🟨,
89', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Olimpo won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Olimpo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Olimpo is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Olimpo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Olimpo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Argentinian Torneo Federal
14.09.25	Cipolletti - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Atenas Río Cuarto	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Ciudad de Bolívar - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Costa Brava	2:0 ✺
10.08.25	Villa Mitre - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTLWT
- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Torneo Federal
14.09.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Atlético de Rafaela - 9 de Julio	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Juventud Antoniana - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Douglas Haig - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.10.18	Atlético de Rafaela - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	2:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.04.17	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2
28.03.15	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0
27.09.14	Atlético de Rafaela - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	0:0
21.03.14	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1
28.09.13	Atlético de Rafaela - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	2:0
05.03.12	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1

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