Match Info

Torneo Federal - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Miguel Morales (Pergamino)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Douglas Haig		Atlético de Rafaela

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.3	1.52
	3.21	2.57	2.68	Watch
	8.05	3.8	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.92 ↑ (2.38)	3.22 ↑ (2.64)	1.87 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Douglas Haig
16.6%

Draw
30.6%

Atlético de Rafaela
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

34.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

35.1%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Douglas Haig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Douglas Haig's form might have worsened.

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético de Rafaela's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Douglas Haig than the current prediction. (+20.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Douglas Haig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-25%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético de Rafaela, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Douglas Haig - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atlético Rafaela (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético de Rafaela will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Rafaela (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bacher E. (G) 6. Bazzana N. 10. Castellano J. 11. Gutierrez S. 4. Magnago B. 3. Mauri M. 5. Meza B. 8. Ojeda L. 9. Orlando M. 2. Pezzi A. 7. Tus E.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 10. Affranchino F. 9. Albertengo L. 8. Capurro J. 2. Fernandez G. 7. Leineker C. 17. Marchiori T. 4. Martinez M. 6. Ponce F. 5. Soloa F. 3. Wuattier E. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Affranchino F. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Tus E. ⚽,
30', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 🟨,
60', 🟨,
64', 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Affranchino F. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: )).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Atlético Rafaela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Douglas Haig won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Douglas Haig won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Douglas Haig
Argentinian Torneo Federal
16.11.25	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Douglas Haig	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Douglas Haig - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	5:0 ✺
01.11.25	Argentino Monte Maíz - Douglas Haig	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Douglas Haig - Argentino Monte Maíz	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Douglas Haig	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWTWL
- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Torneo Federal
15.11.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Guillermo Brown	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Guillermo Brown - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Ciudad de Bolívar - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0 penalties ✺
12.10.25	Sportivo Belgrano - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Sportivo Belgrano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
17.08.25	Douglas Haig - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2

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