Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 6

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Monumental (Rafaela)


	Atlético de Rafaela		Independiente Chivilcoy

	1	X	2
	1.43	3.9	6.25
	1.46	3.65	6.7	Watch
	1.49	3.44	6.91
	1.43	4.37	6.85	Watch
	1.45	3.7	7.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.53)	3.81 ↑ (3.65)	6.76 ↑ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético de Rafaela
62.7%

Draw
23.9%

Independiente Chivilcoy
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

24.8%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

23.9%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Independiente Chivilcoy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Atlético de Rafaela - Independiente Chivilcoy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilbao E. (G) 10. Affranchino F. 9. Albertengo L. 2. Fernandez G. 4. Fuyana J. 8. Jaime D. 7. Leineker C. 11. Pastorelli A. 6. Ponce F. 5. Soloa F. 3. Utrera N.	1. Ratalin G. (G) 3. Borgognoni G. 4. Ciancio V. 5. Giaccone F. 2. Masino M. 7. Mast T. 11. Rodriguez T. 9. Schlotthauer M. 8. Sosa A. 6. Tumbesi F. 10. Veron L.
Substitutes
20. Alfano A. 19. Aquino D. 12. Bergia M. (G) 17. Marchiori T. 15. Marquez E. 16. Miranda B. 18. Protti I. 14. Varela N. 13. Wuattier E. R.	13. Barbieri M. 18. Benitez E. 12. Burello A. (G) 14. Cabrera E. 15. D'Annunzio N. 17. Fernandez V. 19. Fevola T. 16. Sanabria A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Albertengo L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Pastorelli A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
64', Leineker C. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
67', Mast T. 🟨,
77', Affranchino F. ↓, Marquez E. ↑,
79', 🟨,
80', Ponce F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Atlético Rafaela is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ind Chivilcoy is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ind Chivilcoy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético Rafaela is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Torneo Federal
17.08.25	Douglas Haig - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWTWL
- Independiente Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
16.08.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	2:3 ✺
10.08.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Independiente Chivilcoy	3:1 ✺
03.08.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - Independiente Chivilcoy	2:1 ✺
20.07.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - 9 de Julio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT

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