Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1
Albania	20:45	SuperSport 3
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports 2
Austria	20:45	Laola1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 5P
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:45	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 2
Cyprus	21:45	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Finland	21:45	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	20:45	Ligue 1+
Germany	20:45	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Israel	21:45	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	ART Sport 3
Mexico	12:45	Disney+, FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
Norway	20:45	Viaplay
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Russia	21:45	Okko Prime
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Africa	20:45	SuperSport Africa
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+


	Olympique Marseille		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.75	Watch
	1.87	3.70	4.00
	1.92	3.6	3.7	Watch
	1.97	3.8	3.91
	1.91	3.87	3.78	Watch
	1.96	3.75	3.85
	1.97	3.91	3.97	Watch
	1.98	3.8	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.68)	3.77 ↓ (4.04)	3.85 ↓ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
49.6%

Draw
25.4%

Paris FC
25%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.3%

23.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

22.7%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olympique Marseille's form might have worsened.

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	7.4%	18.5%

Olympique Marseille - Paris FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Paris FC will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 23. Hojbjerg P. 77. Harit A. 8. Abdelli H. 7. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.	1. Trapp K. (G) 17. Camara A. 31. Chergui S. 42. Coppola D. 14. Traore H. 15. Koleosho L. 10. Kebbal I. 20. Lopez M. 33. Lees-Melou P. (C) 7. Pagis P. 9. Sinayoko L.
Substitutes
48. Abdallah K. 13. Cornelius D. 25. Garcia U. 42. Kamissoko N. 11. Maupay N. 18. Meite B. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 92. Vermot T. (G)	25. Kore Y. 11. Krasso J. 4. Marchetti V. 23. Matondo R. 5. Mbow M. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 27. Simon M. 18. Sissoko O. 8. Zabi P.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Koleosho L. (A),
8', 1 - 1, Gouiri A. ⚽,
19', 1 - 2, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 2, Gouiri A. ⚽,
64', Pagis P. ↓, Matondo R. ↑,
65', Matondo R. 🟨,
73', Paixao I. ↓, Mmadi T. ↑,
73', Gomes A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
73', Aguerd N. ↓, Cornelius D. ↑,
78', Koleosho L. ↓, Simon M. ↑,
78', Kebbal I. ↓, Zabi P. ↑,
86', 2 - 3, Sinayoko L. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Sinayoko L. 🟨,
90+1', Lopez M. ↓, Mbow M. ↑,
90+1', Sinayoko L. ↓, Sissoko O. ↑,
90+1', Emerson ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
90+1', Abdelli H. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Marseille has had a series of home games.

Recently, Paris FC has had a series of away games.

In this match, Marseille is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Injury) Nnadi T. (Injury)

There will not play in Paris FC: Ikone J. (Hamstring Injury) Mbemba E. (Inactive) Otavio (Injury) Sangui N. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Marseille won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Paris FC	8	4	2	2	13:9	4	14
8	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18:13	5	12

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Paris FC: 1.06% Marseille: 0.76%

Last Results with these Odds

Olympique Marseille - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.27%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Al-Shahania	3:0 ✺
30.07.26	Olympique Marseille - Nîmes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWW
- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
30.08.26	Paris FC - Nice	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Troyes - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Angers - Paris FC	3:2 ✺
01.08.26	Stuttgart - Paris FC	2:2 ✺
24.07.26	Como - Paris FC	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2

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