Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 15

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Toulouse		Strasbourg

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.58	3.25	2.82
	2.65	3.35	2.87
	2.55	3.3	2.79	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.75
	2.61	3.37	2.86	Watch
	2.57	3.25	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.3)	3.27 ↓ (3.43)	2.82 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
37%

Draw
29.1%

Strasbourg
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

27.5%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.4%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Strasbourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toulouse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	42.9%	23.8%

Toulouse - Strasbourg Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Strasbourg will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Strasbourg (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Toulouse (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Strasbourg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 45. Vossah A. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 10. Gboho Y. 9. Magri F. 20. Emersonn	39. Penders M. (G) 6. Doukoure I. 2. Omobamidele A. 23. Sarr M. (C) 22. Doue G. 29. El Mourabet S. 11. Nanasi S. 3. Chilwell B. 19. Enciso J. 7. Moreira D. 9. Panichelli J.
Substitutes
31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 34. Lahmadi N. 22. Messali R. 8. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J.	27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 17. Amougou M. 50. Bajic S. (G) 20. Godo M. 24. Hogsberg L. 83. Luis R. 41. Nzingoula R. 16. Paez K. 5. Sylla A.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Emersonn ⚽,
28', Casseres C. 🟨,
44', Magri F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Magri F. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
61', Nanasi S. ↓, Amougou M. ↑,
61', Omobamidele A. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
75', Doue G. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
78', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
82', Moreira D. 🟨,
85', El Mourabet S. 🟨,
87', Moreira D. ↓, Godo M. ↑,
89', Chilwell B. 🟨,
90+4', Messali R. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Donnum A. (Suspended) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Sauer M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Strasbourg: Emegha E. (Suspended) Ouattara A. (Hamstring Injury) Sow S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:24. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Toulouse - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.07%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Toulouse - Angers	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Toulouse - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
29.10.25	Toulouse - Rennes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLTTT
- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Strasbourg - Brest	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Strasbourg - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
22.11.25	Lens - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Strasbourg - Lille	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Häcken - Strasbourg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
16.03.25	Strasbourg - Toulouse	2:1
12.01.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:2
07.04.24	Toulouse - Strasbourg	0:0
27.08.23	Strasbourg - Toulouse	2:0
29.01.23	Strasbourg - Toulouse	1:2
23.10.22	Toulouse - Strasbourg	2:2
05.02.20	Toulouse - Strasbourg	0:1

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