Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Olympique Marseille		Rennes

	1	X	2
	2	4	3.3	Watch
	2	3.75	3.25
	2.02	3.95	3.25	Watch
	2.07	4.12	3.42
	2.02	4.1	3.23	Watch
	1.95	4	3
	2	4.16	3.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.71)	4.01 ↑ (3.61)	3.3 ↓ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
47.4%

Draw
23.7%

Rennes
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.1%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

27%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olympique Marseille's form might have worsened.

Rennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rennes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rennes than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rennes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.7%	12.9%	19.4%

Olympique Marseille - Rennes Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 21 - 67.7%). Rennes will win (votes: 6 - 19.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 51.2% – 84.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Rennes (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 2 - 50%). Rennes (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 5. Balerdi L. 32. Medina F. 33. Emerson 6. Nnadi T. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 9. Gouiri A. 14. Paixao I. 17. Aubameyang P.	50. Silistrie M. (G) 18. Nagida M. 48. Ait Boudlal A. 24. Rouault A. 26. Merlin Q. 21. Rongier V. (C) 11. Tamari M. 17. Szymanski S. 45. Camara M. 10. Blas L. 9. Lepaul E.
Substitutes
12. De Lange J. (G) 72. Hamzaoui H. 71. Kamissoko N. 78. Lago E. 26. Nadir B. 11. Nwaneri E. 28. Pavard B. 27. Timber Q. 18. Vermeeren A.	60. Belazzoug K. (G) 3. Brassier L. 6. Cisse D. 69. Do Marcolino H. 7. Embolo B. 65. Mukiele N. 70. Nordin A. 36. Seidu A. 77. Zabiri Y.
Coaches
Beye H.	Haise F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Hojbjerg P. ⚽, Greenwood M. (A),
10', 2 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Szymanski S. ↓, Embolo B. ↑,
49', Hojbjerg P. 🟨,
55', 3 - 0, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
67', Tamari M. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
72', Paixao I. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
76', Gouiri A. 🟨,
79', Camara M. 🟨,
79', Blas L. ↓, Mukiele N. ↑,
82', Hojbjerg P. ↓, Timber Q. ↑,
83', Nnadi T. ↓, Kamissoko N. ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Lepaul E. ⚽, Nordin A. (A),
88', Weah T. ↓, Pavard B. ↑,
90+5', Pavard B. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 3.

Marseille has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rennes is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Rennes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Marseille could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Marseille: Abdelli H. (Coach's decision) Aguerd N. (Groin Injury) Egan-Riley C. (Injury) Kondogbia G. (Thigh Injury) Traore H. J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Rennes: Frankowski P. (Injury) Jacquet J. (Shoulder Injury) Samba B. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:6. (average 1.9:0.7).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Rennes: 3.66% Marseille: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8:9	-1	10
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Nantes - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
26.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Nice	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Metz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTLW
- Stade Rennes
French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Rennes - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Lyon - Rennes	4:2 ✺
26.04.26	Rennes - Nantes	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Strasbourg - Rennes	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Rennes - Angers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0
French Ligue 1
15.08.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0
17.05.25	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	4:2
11.01.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:2
17.03.24	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	2:0
Coupe De France
21.01.24	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	2:1 penalties
French Ligue 1
03.12.23	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	2:0

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