Match Info

J2 League - Round 12

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: NACK5 Stadium Omiya (Saitama) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	18:00	K-Ball
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	Omiya Ardija		Kataller Toyama

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.7	2.82
	2.10	3.60	2.70
	2.15	3.55	2.8	Watch
	2.25	4.02	2.92
	2.16	3.97	2.86	Watch
	2.13	3.9	2.85
	2.07	3.72	2.82	Watch
	2.14	3.65	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.2)	3.76 ↑ (3.6)	2.83 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Omiya Ardija
43%

Draw
24.5%

Kataller Toyama
32.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.7%

25.5%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

24.8%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Omiya will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Glover T. (G) 44. Kidera S. 5. Gabriel (C) 88. Nishio R. 3. Kato H. 47. Edward M. 16. Kato G. 18. Yamamoto O. 77. Kobayashi Y. 9. Carlinhos Junior 14. Izumi T.	1. Hirao T. (G) 23. Nishiya S. 56. Okamoto S. 27. Kang Min-Woo 33. Takahashi Y. 34. Takenaka G. 14. Tanimoto S. 28. Fuseya S. 9. Yoshihira T. (C) 11. Kim T. 39. Furukawa M.
Substitutes
11. Caprini 20. Hidaka H. 13. Iyoha O. 22. Motegi R. 15. Nakayama K. 19. Ozaki Y. 23. Sugimoto K. 10. Toyokawa Y. 50. Wakabayashi M. (G)	5. Imase J. 31. Koh Bong-jo (G) 55. Kunitake Y. 8. Matsuoka D. 32. Mizoguchi S. 30. Nakashima Y. 13. Ogawa K. 6. Sera S. 15. Tsuboi K.
Coaches
Pelach N.	Adachi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
49', Fuseya S. 🟨,
60', Kim T. ↓, Kunitake Y. ↑,
61', Yoshihira T. ↓, Ogawa K. ↑,
61', Furukawa M. ↓, Tsuboi K. ↑,
61', Carlinhos Junior ↓, Sugimoto K. ↑,
61', Kidera S. ↓, Caprini ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Tsuboi K. ⚽, Ogawa K. (A),
64', 0 - 2, Fuseya S. ⚽, Tsuboi K. (A),
68', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Toyokawa Y. ↑,
68', Edward M. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
71', Toyokawa Y. 🟨,
78', Yamamoto O. ↓, Hidaka H. ↑,
81', Nishiya S. ↓, Mizoguchi S. ↑,
88', Takenaka G. ↓, Imase J. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 3, Kunitake Y. ⚽,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - J1 League and 4th in the Promotion - J2 League (Promotion: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Omiya may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kataller Toyama has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Omiya has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:5 (averaging 1.5:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Omiya against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1.5:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Toyama	13	6	4	3	23:12	11	22
6	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	23:16	7	21

Last Results with these Odds

Kataller Toyama - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.78%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
17.10.26	Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Omiya Ardija - Vanraure Hachinohe	3:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Omiya Ardija	3:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
04.10.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Omiya Ardija	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Ventforet Kofu	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLTW
- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
17.10.26	Kataller Toyama - Shonan Bellmare	1:1 ✺
11.10.26	Kataller Toyama - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Ventforet Kofu - Kataller Toyama	1:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Kataller Toyama - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:3 ✺
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Kataller Toyama - Yokohama FC	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
02.08.25	Kataller Toyama - Omiya Ardija	0:2
03.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama	2:2
Japan J3 League
24.11.24	Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama	1:2
16.06.24	Kataller Toyama - Omiya Ardija	1:1

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