Match Info

J2 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	13:00	K-Ball
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.25	2.65	Watch
	2.30	3.30	2.60
	2.40	3.35	2.65	Watch
	2.38	3.70	2.93
	2.4	3.61	2.7	Watch
	2.25	3.60	2.90
	2.44	3.34	2.78	Watch
	2.34	3.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.33)	3.45 ↓ (3.59)	2.75 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
39.4%

Draw
26.9%

Omiya Ardija
33.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.2%

25.4%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

25.3%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Omiya Ardija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matsubara S. (G) 44. Abe K. 37. Morishita R. 26. Ando T. 28. Yoshida M. 21. Toyoda A. 6. Sakurai T. 7. Sakamoto K. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. (C) 9. Takahashi T.	24. Glover T. (G) 37. Sekiguchi K. 88. Nishio R. (C) 19. Ozaki Y. 3. Kato H. 47. Edward M. 16. Kato G. 18. Yamamoto O. 11. Caprini 9. Carlinhos Junior 14. Izumi T.
Substitutes
42. Goto H. 4. Imazu Y. 1. Izumori R. (G) 13. Jojo K. 41. Matsuoka H. 5. Nagasawa S. 11. Shiohama R. 24. Yamauchi K. 43. Yoshino K.	13. Iyoha O. 8. Kaua Diniz 77. Kobayashi Y. 49. McGhee J. 22. Motegi R. 15. Nakayama K. 23. Sugimoto K. 10. Toyokawa Y. 50. Wakabayashi M. (G)
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Pelach N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Morishita R. ⚽,
38', Yamamoto O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Edward M. ↓, Toyokawa Y. ↑,
60', Nishizawa K. ↓, Jojo K. ↑,
65', Carlinhos Junior ↓, Sugimoto K. ↑,
65', Kato G. ↓, Kaua Diniz ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Sakamoto K. ⚽,
71', Hyon R. ↓, Shiohama R. ↑,
71', Takahashi T. ↓, Goto H. ↑,
76', Ozaki Y. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
76', Sekiguchi K. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
80', Kobayashi Y. 🟨,
83', 2 - 1, Kato H. ⚽,
87', Morishita R. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,
88', Yoshida M. ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 15th and 2nd in the Promotion - J1 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Tosu may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Tosu has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:8 (averaging 1.1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tosu against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 7:3 goals (averaging 1.2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	23:16	7	21
10	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	14:15	-1	17

Last Results with these Odds

Sagan Tosu - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.2%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
10.10.26	Sagan Tosu - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Blaublitz Akita - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWLWL
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
10.10.26	Omiya Ardija - Vanraure Hachinohe	3:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Omiya Ardija	3:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
04.10.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Omiya Ardija	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Ventforet Kofu	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Fujieda MYFC - Omiya Ardija	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
21.06.25	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	0:0
15.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija	1:0
Japan J1 League
19.08.17	Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija	3:0
04.06.17	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	1:1
25.09.16	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	1:1
21.05.16	Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija	0:1
23.08.14	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	1:3

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