The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Sagan Tosu 26.9%
Draw 26.8%
Omiya Ardija 46.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.2%
28.1%
35.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.6%
28.4%
35.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sagan Tosu's form might have worsened.
Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Omiya Ardija's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sagan Tosu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (-11%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Omiya Ardija, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20%
0%
80%
Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Omiya will win (votes: 4 - 80%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 37. Morishita R. 32. Ogawa S. 14. Sakaiya K. 33. Nishiya K. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 77. Slivka V. 16. Nishizawa K.
1. Kasahara T. (G) 55. Gabriel 4. Ichihara R. 20. Shimoguchi W. 22. Motegi R. 30. Arthur Feitoza 7. Kojima M. 14. Izumi T. 10. Toyokawa Y. 23. Sugimoto K. 42. Fujii K.
Substitutes
18. Hino S. 44. Horigome Y. 22. Matsuda E. 5. Nagasawa S. 47. Shinkawa S. 35. Uchiyama K. (G) 91. Uehara M. 25. Watanabe R.
29. Caprini 26. Hamada M. 6. Ishikawa T. 21. Kato Y. (G) 15. Nakayama K. 37. Sekiguchi K. 90. Sunday O. 5. Urakami N. 41. Yachida T.
Coaches
Kogiku A.
Nagasawa T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Sakaiya K. ↓, Matsuda E. ↑,
20', Gabriel 🟨,
30', Kojima M. 🟨,
34', Nishizawa K. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Nishizawa K. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
75', Nishikawa J. ↓, Horigome Y. ↑,
75', Sakurai T. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
77', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Caprini ↑,
77', Motegi R. ↓, Sekiguchi K. ↑,
77', Fujii K. ↓, Yachida T. ↑,
84', Matsuda E. ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
84', Nishizawa K. ↓, Hino S. ↑,
85', Kojima M. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
90+2', Slivka V. 🟨,
Preview
Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 2.
Tosu is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Omiya is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Omiya will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 10 head-to-head matches Tosu won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.2:0.8).
Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:3 (average 1.2:0.6).
Japan
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Izumori R. (G) 
Slivka V. 
Gabriel 
Sunday O. 
