Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 27 July 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov (Šymkent) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jonasson H. M. (Ice)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Slovakia	17:00	Arena sport 1
Ukraine	18:00	Sport 1


	Ordabasy		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.05
	3.2	3.4	1.95
	3.5	3.15	2.16
	3.49	3.17	2.16
	3.5	3.32	2.11	Watch
	3.7	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↓ (4.6)	3.28 ↓ (3.5)	2.09 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ordabasy
27.5%

Draw
28.2%

Legia Warsaw
44.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.8%

27.4%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

27%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ordabasy's performance.

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Legia Warsaw might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ordabasy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Legia Warsaw could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.9%	8.6%	68.6%

Ordabasy - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Ordabasy will win (votes: 8 - 22.9%). Legia will win (votes: 24 - 68.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 53.2% – 84%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shaizada B. (G) 26. Mbodj P. M. 25. Maliy S. 23. Erlanov T. 96. Auro 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 19. Makarenko E. 5. Suyumbaev G. 9. Islamkhan B. 29. Sadovski U. 7. Umarov S.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 12. Pankov R. 8. Augustyniak R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 13. Wszolek P. 99. Slisz B. 21. Celhaka J. 33. Kun P. 27. Josue (C) 7. Pekhart T. 28. Gual M.
Substitutes
45. Abdikholikov B. 22. Astanov S. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 11. Fedin M. 88. Jorginho 27. Matic B. 6. Narzildaev D. 74. Seysen M. (G) 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 21. Tungyshbayev Y. 47. Vasiljev V. 99. Zhaksylykov A.	32. Baku M. 22. Elitim J. 30. Hladun D. (G) 14. Kharatin I. 23. Kobylak G. (G) 9. Kramer B. 20. Muci E. 5. Ribeiro Y. 92. Rose L. 39. Rosolek M. 18. Sokolowski P. 86. Strzalek I.
Coaches
Sednev A.	Runjaic K.

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams in the last matches got series of victories.

Legia will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
22.07.23	Ordabasy - Kyzylzhar	2:1 ✺
15.07.23	Atyrau - Ordabasy	1:1 ✺
10.07.23	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	0:4 ✺
Kazakh Cup
06.07.23	Ordabasy - Astana	2:0 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.07.23	Ordabasy - Aksu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWWW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.07.23	Legia Warsaw - ŁKS Łódź	3:0 ✺
Polish Super Cup
15.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.23	Red Bull Salzburg - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
01.07.23	Legia Warsaw - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 ✺
28.06.23	Legia Warsaw - Botoșani	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
31.10.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Ordabasy	✺
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.10.26	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	✺

Ordabasy - Legia Warsaw