Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Atyrau		Ordabasy

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.10	1.42
	5.10	3.65	1.50	Watch
	7.79	4.30	1.43
	5.83	3.9	1.52	Watch
	7.70	3.75	1.41
	5.70	4.34	1.51	Watch
	6.00	4.10	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.27 ↑ (4.6)	4.02 ↑ (3.5)	1.46 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atyrau
14.6%

Draw
22.7%

Ordabasy
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

25.2%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

23.9%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ordabasy's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (-4%)

Atyrau - Ordabasy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 5. Satanov S. 78. Khvalko E. 71. Prce F. 2. Tkachenko Y. 4. Rabiu M. 15. Ofori E. 17. Kalmuratov K. (C) 20. Boranshiev A. 8. Stanic M. 44. Maksimovic D.	1. Shayzada B. (G) 11. Vakulko Y. 25. Maliy S. (C) 8. Zhaksybaev U. 22. Astanov S. 44. Keita T. 77. Abagna D. 5. Antic N. 15. Amir Z. 28. Johnsen B. 19. Leo Natel
Substitutes
9. Abdulla A. 27. Berdesh N. 21. Deputy D. 14. Dorofeev K. 7. Henrique 99. Kereev B. 1. Khatkevich E. (G) 90. Pantelic D. 11. Seytkaliev A. 23. Shaykhov B. 70. Zhaksylyk B. 25. Zhumagali S.	24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 10. Astanov E. 16. Capatina M. 9. Everton 4. Keiler S. 23. Nurymbet A. 27. Serik N. 21. Toktybay B. 20. Toktybay M. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A.
Coaches
Smakov S.	Martin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Johnsen B. ⚽, Leo Natel (A),
40', Tkachenko Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Keita T. ↓, Capatina M. ↑,
50', Satanov S. 🟨,
54', 0 - 2, Johnsen B. ⚽, Amir Z. (A),
62', Stanic M. ↓, Dorofeev K. ↑,
62', Boranshiev A. ↓, Henrique ↑,
62', Tkachenko Y. ↓, Pantelic D. ↑,
65', Leo Natel ↓, Astanov E. ↑,
77', Amir Z. ↓, Everton ↑,
83', Astanov S. ↓, Nurymbet A. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Johnsen B. ⚽, Abagna D. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 0.

Atyrau is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ordabasy is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Ordabasy is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:26. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atyrau won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.8:1.2).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Ordabasy: 69.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51:18	33	61
15	Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18:28	-10	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
12.09.26	Kaisar - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Kyzylzhar - Atyrau	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Atyrau - Astana	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Atyrau - Okzhetpes	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Atyrau - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLLT
- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
12.09.26	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ordabasy - Kyzylzhar	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.08.26	Altai Semey - Ordabasy	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Ordabasy - Altai Semey	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Ordabasy - Atyrau	1:1
03.08.25	Ordabasy - Atyrau	2:2
03.05.25	Atyrau - Ordabasy	1:2
15.09.24	Ordabasy - Atyrau	1:0
Kazakh League Cup
25.05.24	Atyrau - Ordabasy	0:0
Kazakh Premier League
06.03.24	Atyrau - Ordabasy	1:1
15.07.23	Atyrau - Ordabasy	1:1

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