Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Okzhetpes Stadium (Kokshetau)

Referee: Zatula A. (Kaz)


	Okzhetpes		Ordabasy

	1	X	2
	4.60	3.90	1.55
	4.7	4.05	1.55	Watch
	4.87	4.25	1.56
	4.71	4.09	1.59	Watch
	4.5	3.9	1.53
	5.11	4.07	1.61	Watch
	4.6	3.95	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (3.89)	4.03 ↑ (3.47)	1.56 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Okzhetpes
19.2%

Draw
22.6%

Ordabasy
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

26.5%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

26.1%

50.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Okzhetpes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ordabasy's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Okzhetpes than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ordabasy, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Okzhetpes - Ordabasy Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ordabasy will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Lobantsev M. (G) 63. Kuzmichev I. 5. Leo Assunpcao 3. Lototskyi B. 77. Sovpel V. 25. Marcinho 6. Mukhametkhanov Z. 47. Vasiljev V. 8. Buribaev N. 91. Abdumannonov B. 11. Zhangylyshbay T. (C)	1. Shayzada B. (G) 22. Astanov S. 25. Maliy S. (C) 55. Amanovic A. 11. Vakulko Y. 15. Amir Z. 16. Capatina M. 77. Abagna D. 10. Astanov E. 9. Everton 28. Johnsen B.
Substitutes
67. Atykhanov R. 12. Dovgal A. (G) 20. Ensebaev M. 1. Golubnichiy M. (G) 14. Mukanov S. 10. Nurgaliyev E. 90. Sadovski U. (. 16. Shamshi B. 17. Umarov S. 7. Vomenko V. 2. Zhaksylykov Z. 4. Zyabko V.	24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 5. Antic N. 44. Keita T. 3. Kilama G. 19. Leo Natel 23. Nurymbet A. 27. Serik N. 21. Toktybay B. 20. Toktybay M. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A. 8. Zhaksybaev U.
Coaches
Alyuetov R.	Martin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Johnsen B. ⚽, Everton (A),
26', Astanov E. ↓, Leo Natel ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 1, Buribaev N. (Penalty Awarded),
52', Buribaev N. 🟨,
65', Sovpel V. ↓, Mukanov S. ↑,
66', Vakulko Y. ↓, Antic N. ↑,
72', Marcinho 🟨,
74', Leo Natel 🟨,
77', Amanovic A. 🟨,
79', Leo Assunpcao 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Leo Assunpcao ⚽, Vasiljev V. (A),
86', Buribaev N. ↓, Nurgaliyev E. ↑,
86', Zhangylyshbay T. ↓, Umarov S. ↑,
88', Capatina M. ↓, Keita T. ↑,
90+3', Vomenko V. 🟨,
90+7', Abdumannonov B. ↓, Zhaksylykov Z. ↑,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okzhetpes won 0.

In recent matches, Okzhetpes has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ordabasy is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Okzhetpes has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ordabasy is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Okzhetpes won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 15:40. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Okzhetpes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:16. (average 0.7:1.6).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Ordabasy: 69.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51:18	33	61
4	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	41:35	6	45

Last Results with these Odds

Ordabasy - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.78%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Okzhetpes
Kazakh Premier League
29.08.26	Kaisar - Okzhetpes	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Atyrau - Okzhetpes	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Astana - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Okzhetpes - Altai Semey	4:1 ✺
25.07.26	Aktobe - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWL
- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
29.08.26	Ordabasy - Kyzylzhar	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.08.26	Altai Semey - Ordabasy	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Ordabasy - Altai Semey	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Zhetysu - Ordabasy	0:4 ✺
02.08.26	Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
18.04.26	Ordabasy - Okzhetpes	2:1
19.10.25	Ordabasy - Okzhetpes	7:1
21.06.25	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	0:1
10.07.23	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	0:4
21.05.23	Ordabasy - Okzhetpes	1:0
30.11.20	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	1:3
07.03.20	Ordabasy - Okzhetpes	1:0

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