Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 1

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Oriental de La Paz		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.98	3.5
	2.09	3.13	3.57
	2.13	3.06	3.65	Watch
	2.1	2.88	3.5
	2.04	3.08	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (2.01)	3.03 ↓ (3.18)	3.54 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Oriental de La Paz
43.9%

Draw
30.2%

Cerrito
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

29.2%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27.8%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oriental de La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oriental de La Paz than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, ⚽,
18', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oriental won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Oriental may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Oriental could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oriental won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Oriental won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	29:22	7	32
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 3.77 are the expected chance of winning is 24.61%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oriental de La Paz
Uruguayan Segunda Division
02.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Plaza Colonia - Oriental de La Paz	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Rentistas - Oriental de La Paz	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Oriental de La Paz - Miramar Misiones	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Oriental de La Paz - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLWWW
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
25.04.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Cerrito	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Tacuarembó - Cerrito	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
12.10.25	Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz	2:3
20.07.25	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	1:1
03.11.24	Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz	3:1
13.07.24	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:1
29.11.23	Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz	2:1
23.07.23	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:0

Upcoming Matches