Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 20

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Charrúa (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerrito		La Luz

	1	X	2
	2.20	2.95	3.00
	2.18	3.05	3.00
	2.32	3.07	3.24
	2.24	3.12	3.29	Watch
	2.20	3.00	3.20
	2.29	3.12	3.22	Watch
	2.15	2.95	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.2)	3.04 ↑ (3)	3.16 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
41%

Draw
30.1%

La Luz
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

27.8%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Cerrito - La Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 7th and 13th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 1.

In recent outings, Cerrito has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

La Luz has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

La Luz could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Cerrito is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Cerrito has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:10 (averaging 0.5:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerrito against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals (averaging 0.3:0 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

La Luz - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 29.73%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.26	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.09.26	Cerrito - Paysandú	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WTTWL
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
19.09.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Paysandú - La Luz	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	La Luz - Huracán Paso de la Arena	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	La Luz - Oriental de La Paz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.06.26	La Luz - Cerrito	2:0
18.04.26	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0
16.08.25	Cerrito - La Luz	1:0
24.05.25	La Luz - Cerrito	2:2
14.09.24	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0
31.05.24	La Luz - Cerrito	6:0

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