Match Info

Pershaya Liga - Round 15

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Central City Stadium (Orsha)


	Orsha		Smorgon

	1	X	2
	3.70	3.45	1.84
	4.00	3.75	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↑ (2.4)	3.6 ↑ (3.45)	1.75 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 10.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orsha
23.4%

Draw
25%

Smorgon
51.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

25.6%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

25.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orsha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Orsha's form might have worsened.

Smorgon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Smorgon's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orsha than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Orsha, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Smorgon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Volodkov A. (G) 8. Berezun I. 7. Bobchenok N. 93. Bordukov P. 22. Kudinov E. 16. Pashkevich M. 88. Rudenok D. 82. Shalychev V. 5. Tarbyakov N. 19. Vekhtev N. 77. Zheleznikov G. (C)	16. Piarov D. 3. Autko M. 77. Bogdanovich I. 17. Dukso M. (C) 30. Fartuna B. 33. Fazylov A. 2. Intsoen C. 78. Kovalevich V. 7. Nsangou J. 27. Tishko A. 9. Yablonskiy M.
Substitutes
69. Bulakhov S. 14. Dambrovsky A. 80. Komarov Y. 52. Kravchenko R. (G) 17. Kulesh Y. 11. Stain D. 9. Tikhomirov D. 18. Volchenko N.	59. Devyaten A. 22. Galko V. 25. Kovalev D. 47. Kukhley R. 52. Mychelkin E. 19. Velesyuk A. (G) 20. Zhabrakov D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Vekhtev N. ⚽, Zheleznikov G. (A),
30', 1 - 1, Dukso M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', 🟨,
58', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orsha won 3.

Orsha is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Smorgon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Orsha won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Orsha won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Smorgon	27	9	6	12	33:36	-3	33
14	Orsha	27	7	6	14	28:51	-23	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Orsha
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
04.07.26	BumProm Gomel - Orsha	1:3 ✺
28.06.26	Orsha - Minsk 2	0:4 ✺
20.06.26	Osipovichi - Orsha	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	Orsha - Lida	1:2 ✺
07.06.26	Niva Dolbizno - Orsha	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WLLLT
- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
05.07.26	Smorgon - Volna Pinsk	1:3 ✺
27.06.26	Smorgon - Soligorsk	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	BumProm Gomel - Smorgon	2:1 ✺
14.06.26	Smorgon - Minsk 2	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	Osipovichi - Smorgon	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Pershaya Liga
05.06.22	Orsha - Smorgon	1:1
06.09.20	Smorgon - Orsha	0:1
02.05.20	Orsha - Smorgon	0:0
31.08.19	Orsha - Smorgon	3:1
27.04.19	Smorgon - Orsha	1:2
11.08.18	Orsha - Smorgon	0:0
26.08.17	Orsha - Smorgon	0:2

Orsha - Smorgon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide