Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata (Barrancabermeja) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Colombia	19:30	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	20:30	Fanatiz


	Orsomarso		Deportes Quindío

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.00	2.85
	2.25	3.15	2.95	Watch
	2.39	3.15	2.98
	2.36	3.19	3.01	Watch
	2.3	3	2.85
	2.3	2.96	3	Watch
	2.26	3.15	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.38)	3.09 ↑ (2.95)	2.93 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orsomarso
39.5%

Draw
29.5%

Deportes Quindío
31%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

30.4%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

29.6%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orsomarso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Deportes Quindío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Quindío than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Orsomarso - Deportes Quindío Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Orsomarso will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Deportes Quindío will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (3.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Blanco I. (G) 6. Agamez S. 9. Arrechea S. 13. Barreiro J. 5. Barrios D. 16. Benitez Hernandez R. A. 7. Caicedo B. 24. Campaz B. 27. Contreras J. 26. Gonzalez S. 32. Ruiz M.	30. Silva J. (G) 25. Carabali R. A. F. 24. Ibarguen J. 7. Lloreda J. 20. Ocampo J. 6. Orozco S. 28. Ortiz J. S. 5. Roa S. 19. Sandoval J. 16. Torres Y. 8. Valencia F.
Substitutes
30. Cossio C. (G) 15. Gomez K. M. 22. Matamba D. 8. Munoz J. 10. Ruiz A. 23. Sanchez M. 28. Valencia Y. 18. Valoyes Y. 25. Villarreal J.	21. Alvarez A. 9. Bacca M. 3. Castano M. 18. Cordoba J. 4. Delgado J. 11. Lopez S. 15. Mosquera F. 12. Pabon S. (G) 14. Rodrigo Moran L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', Ortiz J. S. 🟨,
12', Barreiro J. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Lloreda J. ⚽,
36', Agamez S. 🟨,
41', Valencia F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ruiz M. ↓, Gomez K. M. ↑,
58', Campaz B. 🟨,
60', Sandoval J. 🟨,
66', Ortiz J. S. ↓, Castano M. ↑,
66', Ibarguen J. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
66', Orozco S. ↓, Cordoba J. ↑,
69', Campaz B. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
69', Gonzalez S. ↓, Villarreal J. ↑,
78', Lloreda J. ↓, Bacca M. ↑,
78', Torres Y. ↓, Rodrigo Moran L. ↑,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 14th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orsomarso won 1.

Orsomarso is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Deportes Quindío have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Orsomarso may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Orsomarso has recorded 5 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:22 (averaging 1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Orsomarso against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with 11:13 goals (averaging 1:1.2 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Quindio	15	6	5	4	14:13	1	23
13	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	11:14	-3	17

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Quindío - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 31.99%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Primera B
01.10.26	Envigado - Orsomarso	0:0 ✺
28.09.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Orsomarso	4:3 ✺
22.09.26	Real Santander - Orsomarso	0:0 ✺
14.09.26	Orsomarso - Atlético Cali	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Orsomarso - Tigres	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLTLL
- Deportes Quindío
Colombian Primera B
28.09.26	Deportes Quindío - Bogotá	1:0 ✺
21.09.26	Real Cundinamarca - Deportes Quindío	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Deportes Quindío - Patriotas	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Deportes Quindío	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Deportes Quindío - Real Santander	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
26.03.26	Deportes Quindío - Orsomarso	2:2
19.10.25	Orsomarso - Deportes Quindío	2:3
13.05.25	Deportes Quindío - Orsomarso	0:0
18.11.24	Deportes Quindío - Orsomarso	0:2
04.11.24	Orsomarso - Deportes Quindío	0:0
22.08.24	Orsomarso - Deportes Quindío	0:1
02.03.24	Deportes Quindío - Orsomarso	1:1

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