Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 28

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Tajonar Facilities Stadium (Pamplona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Osasuna B		Athletic Bilbao B

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.2
	3.69	2.99	2.3
	3.37	3.16	2.19	Watch
	3.25	2.75	2.2
	3.54	2.7	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.79)	2.92 ↓ (3)	2.23 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna B
27.1%

Draw
31.5%

Athletic Bilbao B
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

30.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

29.4%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Osasuna B's form might have worsened.

Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Rafa (G) 5. Santos U. 12. Lucero R. 3. Jimenez A. 4. Espejo D. 21. Ruiz R. C. 10. Rico M. 16. Auria M. 34. Arrasate I. 19. Bonel A. 17. Arroyo R.	13. Santos M. (G) 2. Irurita X. 5. Monreal I. 3. De Luis J. 19. Louis-Jean J. 23. Gift E. 6. Gibelalde M. 20. Korkut E. 18. Garcia E. 22. Perez A. 7. Hierro A.
Substitutes
30. Anso M. 6. Echegoyen M. 15. Efremov A. 14. Garcia J. 26. Garin X. 9. Gonzalez D. 22. Larrion A. 7. Lumbreras C. 11. Pedroarena M. 20. Perez B. 1. Stamatakis D. (G) 8. Yoldi A.	15. Alday I. 12. Barandalla M. 11. Bujan E. 27. Galindo I. (G) 1. Gamen E. (G) 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 8. Lete E. 9. Sanz I. 26. Sola J. 34. Urzaiz U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Arroyo R. 🟨,
63', Arroyo R. ↓, Yoldi A. ↑,
63', Bonel A. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Sanz I. ⚽,
76', Louis-Jean J. ↓, Barandalla M. ↑,
76', Gift E. ↓, Bujan E. ↑,
84', Rico M. ↓, Lumbreras C. ↑,
88', Perez A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna B won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Osasuna B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Athletic Bilbao B is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Osasuna B won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:15. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna B won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 37.67%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.03.26	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Osasuna B - Pontevedra	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Osasuna B - Unionistas de Salamanca	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Osasuna B - Cacereño	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTLLT
- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.03.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Zamora	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.10.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	0:0
15.03.25	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1
15.11.24	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.04.23	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	1:0
27.11.22	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	3:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
15.02.20	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1
28.09.19	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	5:0

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