The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Real Madrid Castilla 40%
Draw 30.7%
Athletic Bilbao B 29.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46.4%
29%
24.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48%
30%
23.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Madrid Castilla's form might have worsened.
Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-5.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Bilbao B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 21. Aguado D. 8. Angel M. 6. Perea C. 20. Fortuny P. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 11. Iglesias Lois B.
13. Santos M. (G) 15. Alday I. 4. Dunabeitia A. 3. De Luis J. 19. Louis-Jean J. 17. Huestamendia P. 18. Garcia E. 8. Lete E. 10. Sanchez I. 9. Sanz I. 23. Gift E.
Substitutes
49. Arnuncio A. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 39. Leiva A. 28. Martin R. 30. Mesonero D. 32. Navascues L. 10. Palacios C. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G)
12. Barandalla M. 11. Bujan E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 21. Garcia B. 6. Gibelalde M. 2. Irurita X. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 20. Korkut E. 36. Pecina A. 22. Perez A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Sanchez I. ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Fortuny P. ⚽,
28', Sanchez I. ↓, Korkut E. ↑,
28', Dunabeitia A. ↓, Izagirre Cestona A. ↑,
39', Huestamendia P. 🟨,
45+4', Garcia E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Perea C. ↓, Cestero Sancho J. ↑,
46', Huestamendia P. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
57', Iglesias Lois B. ↓, Palacios C. ↑,
66', Fortuny P. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
73', Martinez J. 🟨,
77', Zuniga L. ↓, Martin R. ↑,
77', Yanez D. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
80', Gift E. ↓, Bujan E. ↑,
88', Sanz I. ↓, Pecina A. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Palacios C. ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2.
Recent form of Real Madrid Castilla has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Athletic Bilbao B has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Real Madrid Castilla could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
Spain
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Fran (G) 
Zuniga L. 
Louis-Jean J. 
Korkut E. 
