Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 26

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Lugo		Athletic Bilbao B

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.8	3
	2.32	2.98	3.05
	2.32	3.05	3.21
	1.18	5.21	30.56	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3
	2.42	2.94	3.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.27)	3.3 ↑ (2.91)	7.66 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
52%

Draw
33.6%

Athletic Bilbao B
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

31.3%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

30.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

Athletic Bilbao B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (G) 8. Balboa A. 9. Celorio N. 5. Gallar A. 3. Garriz I. 7. Gonzalez J. 6. Haro P. 14. Presa K. 15. Reniero N. 2. Rodriguez Y. 4. Trigueros P.	13. Santos M. (G) 15. Alday I. 3. De Luis J. 18. Garcia E. 23. Gift E. 20. Korkut E. 8. Lete E. 19. Louis-Jean J. 5. Monreal I. 22. Perez A. 9. Sanz I.
Substitutes
10. Alba T. 36. Candal J. (G) 18. Costa G. 24. Gaya J. 23. Junior L. 20. Lopez I. 13. Piedra I. (G) 25. Sanchez B. 21. Teofilovic O. 19. Unzueta I.	27. Galindo I. (G) 1. Gamen E. (G) 21. Garcia B. 6. Gibelalde M. 7. Hierro A. 2. Irurita X. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 34. Urzaiz U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Gift E. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Reniero N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lete E. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
67', Sanz I. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
77', Reniero N. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
77', Haro P. ↓, Unzueta I. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 3.19 are the expected chance of winning is 28.56%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.02.26	Pontevedra - Lugo	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWTLW
- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.02.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Zamora	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Arenteiro - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:0
21.02.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:2
02.11.24	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
22.05.16	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	2:0
21.12.15	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	1:1

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