Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 27

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Osasuna B

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.2	5.25
	1.68	3.35	5.15
	1.69	3.54	5.04
	1.69	3.49	5.25	Watch
	1.67	3.1	4.8
	1.71	3.32	5.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.62)	3.33 ↑ (3.33)	5.16 ↓ (5.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
54.6%

Draw
27.6%

Osasuna B
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

27.2%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

25.2%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Osasuna B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Ponferradina - Osasuna B Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponferradina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 3. Novoa G. 19. Lopez A. 12. Koke 5. Undabarrena E. 22. Esquerdo V. 16. Frimpong E. 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B. 9. Cortes J. 8. Slavy	13. Rafa (G) 4. Espejo D. 5. Santos U. 3. Jimenez A. 12. Lucero R. 21. Ruiz R. C. 16. Auria M. 10. Rico M. 34. Arrasate I. 17. Arroyo R. 19. Bonel A.
Substitutes
25. Barredo P. (G) 14. Fernandez X. 20. Ferrer P. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 4. Moltenis B. 11. Petkov S. 15. Sousa V.	30. Anso M. 15. Efremov A. 26. Garin X. 9. Gonzalez D. 22. Larrion A. 7. Lumbreras C. 11. Pedroarena M. 1. Stamatakis D. (G) 8. Yoldi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Bonel A. ⚽,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Koke ↓, Jorrin M. ↑,
46', Esquerdo V. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
48', 🟨,
66', Slavy ↓, Petkov S. ↑,
66', Cortes J. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
70', Arroyo R. ↓, Yoldi A. ↑,
70', Bonel A. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
71', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
81', Rico M. ↓, Garin X. ↑,
85', Frimpong E. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
87', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 4.

Ponferradina is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Osasuna B is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Osasuna B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ponferradina is the team to beat.

We predict that Ponferradina will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Ponferradina - Celta de Vigo B	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WWWTW
- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.02.26	Osasuna B - Pontevedra	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Osasuna B - Unionistas de Salamanca	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Osasuna B - Cacereño	2:2 ✺
30.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.09.25	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:0
20.04.25	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	3:2
28.09.24	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:3
04.02.24	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:1
30.09.23	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
07.05.17	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	3:0
11.12.16	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	1:1

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