Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Tajonar Facilities Stadium (Pamplona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Osasuna B		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.2
	2.98	3.1	2.3
	3	3.46	2.34
	3.20	3.05	2.30	Watch
	3.14	3.14	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.33)	3.15 ↑ (2.94)	2.29 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna B
30.2%

Draw
29.4%

Real Madrid Castilla
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

30.9%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

31.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Osasuna B's form might have worsened.

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid Castilla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Osasuna B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Osasuna B - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stamatakis D. (G) 2. Arguibide I. 23. Serrano M. 3. Jimenez A. 21. Ruiz R. C. 14. Garcia J. 16. Auria M. 6. Echegoyen M. 8. Yoldi A. 9. Gonzalez D. 11. Pedroarena M.	1. Fran (G) 17. Fortea J. 15. Martinez J. 23. Fati L. 21. Aguado D. 8. Moran M. A. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 27. Pitarch Pinar T. 20. Fortuny P. 10. Palacios C. 11. Iglesias Lois B.
Substitutes
29. Alonso A. 30. Anso M. 34. Arrasate I. 17. Arroyo R. 18. Bonel A. 26. Garin X. 35. Kall A. 22. Larrion A. 7. Lumbreras C. 20. Perez B. 13. Rafa (G) 5. Santos U.	33. Castrelo G. 28. Martin R. 36. Moya A. 29. Ortega J. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 3. Valdepenas V. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Yoldi A. ⚽,
26', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', 🟨,
56', 🟨,
60', Gonzalez D. ↓, Lumbreras C. ↑,
60', Pedroarena M. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
68', 🟨,
77', 🟨,
82', Garcia J. ↓, Garin X. ↑,
87', Yoldi A. ↓, Santos U. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Real Madrid Castilla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Real Madrid Castilla has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Real Avilés - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Osasuna B - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.08.25	Osasuna B - Teruel	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Osasuna B - Mutilvera	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTWWL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Lugo	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWTW

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