Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday


	Ostia Mare		Notaresco

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.85	4.75
	1.53	3.75	5.53
	1.63	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.75)	3.78 ↓ (3.95)	4.93 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ostia Mare
57.7%

Draw
23.9%

Notaresco
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

23.2%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

21.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ostia Mare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ostia Mare's performance.

Notaresco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Notaresco might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notaresco than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Ostia Mare - Notaresco Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ostia Mare (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group F (Play Offs: )).

Ostia Mare is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Notaresco's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Notaresco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Notaresco has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ostia Mare is a strong favorite.

We predict that Ostia Mare will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Notaresco - the odds 3.74 are the expected chance of winning is 24.49%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
23.11.25	Chieti - Ostia Mare	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Ostia Mare - Sammaurese	7:0 ✺
09.11.25	UniPomezia - Ostia Mare	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Ostia Mare - Teramo	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Castelfidardo - Ostia Mare	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWTW
- Notaresco Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
23.11.25	Notaresco - L Aquila	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
19.11.25	Notaresco - UniPomezia	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group F
16.11.25	Notaresco - Teramo	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Sammaurese - Notaresco	2:2 ✺
02.11.25	Notaresco - Sora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLTW

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