Match Info

Carioca 2 - Round 10

Date: 7 July 2025, Monday


	Pérolas Negras		Duque de Caxias

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.85	2.65
	2.62	2.92	2.82
	2.58	2.96	2.78
				Watch
	2.53	2.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.84)	2.9 ↓ (3.04)	2.75 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pérolas Negras
35.5%

Draw
31.4%

Duque de Caxias
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

30.1%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

29.5%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pérolas Negras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Duque de Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pérolas Negras than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duque de Caxias than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Pérolas Negras - Duque de Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 1 - 0, Pepe ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Carioca B1 and 10).

Pérolas Negras is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Duque de Caxias has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pérolas Negras
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
28.06.25	Olaria - Pérolas Negras	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	Pérolas Negras - Bangu	1:1 ✺
08.06.25	Pérolas Negras - Resende	0:1 ✺
05.06.25	Cabofriense - Pérolas Negras	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	São Gonçalo - Pérolas Negras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TTLLL
- Duque de Caxias
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
28.06.25	Duque de Caxias - Americano Rio de Janeiro	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Araruama - Duque de Caxias	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Duque de Caxias - America RJ	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Audax Rio - Duque de Caxias	2:1 ✺
04.06.25	Duque de Caxias - São Gonçalo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTTLL

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