Match Info

Super League - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Toumba Stadium (Thessaloniki)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ANT1 Pacific
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 5
Usa	ANT1 Satellite, SportsEngine Play


	PAOK		Aris

	1	X	2
	1.51	4.20	5.50	Watch
	1.55	4.00	5.75
	1.55	4.00	5.60	Watch
	1.56	4.31	6.25
	1.56	4.17	5.42	Watch
	1.51	4.25	6.15
	1.54	4.18	5.48	Watch
	1.49	3.95	5.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.68)	4.13 ↑ (3.55)	5.72 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PAOK
61%

Draw
22.6%

Aris
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.1%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

26.8%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PAOK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in PAOK's performance.

Aris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aris than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	23.1%	7.7%

PAOK - Aris Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. PAOK will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Aris will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PAOK: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pavlenka J. (G) 3. Kenny J. 19. Diego Costa 5. Michailidis G. 21. Baba A. 16. Ugresic O. 20. Zafeiris C. 14. Zivkovic A. (C) 10. Pelkas D. 11. Taison 27. Ndiaye C.	33. Velho R. (G) 27. Fadiga N. 4. Fabiano 44. Sutalo B. 3. Richards O. 20. Dele-Bashiru T. 10. Racic U. (C) 7. Garre B. 97. Jensen F. 70. Gianniotas G. 9. Kadewere T.
Substitutes
22. Ali T. 97. Bataoulas D. 2. Camara M. 52. Chatsidis D. 18. Jakic K. 78. Kosidis G. 56. Mythou A. 7. Santamaria B. 47. Shoretire S. 32. Taylor G. 25. Thymianis K. 99. Tsiftsis A. (G)	24. Barbopoulos A. (G) 49. Boussaid O. 41. Charoupas K. 5. Garcia M. 8. Kouame C. 21. Majkic L. (G) 17. Mir R. 80. Moron L. 34. Palacios S. 2. Petris J. 45. Thiam M. 22. Voriazidis M.
Coaches
Lisci A.	Grigoriou M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', Kenny J. 🟨,
20', Zafeiris C. 🟨,
25', Kadewere T. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Ndiaye C. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 2 - 0, Zivkovic A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dele-Bashiru T. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
61', Kadewere T. ↓, Moron L. ↑,
64', Zafeiris C. ↓, Jakic K. ↑,
73', Taison ↓, Camara M. ↑,
73', Pelkas D. ↓, Chatsidis D. ↑,
77', Ndiaye C. 🟨,
78', Fadiga N. ↓, Petris J. ↑,
78', Gianniotas G. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
85', Garre B. ↓, Palacios S. ↑,
85', Ndiaye C. ↓, Mythou A. ↑,
85', Zivkovic A. ↓, Ali T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 1.

Recent performances by PAOK have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aris is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

PAOK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aris has had a series of away games.

In this match, PAOK is a strong favorite.

There will not play in PAOK: Chalov F. (Knee Injury) Despodov K. (Toe Injury) Elustondo A. (Red Card) Hatzidiakos P. (Inactive) Jakic K. (Injury) Louchet T. (Inactive) Meite S. (Hip Injury) Sarris G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Aris: Galanopoulos K. (Inactive) Gning M. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, PAOK won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1:0.8).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

PAOK: 13.02% Aris: 0.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	PAOK	5	4	0	1	12:5	7	12
7	Aris	5	2	1	2	5:10	-5	7

Last Results with these Odds

PAOK - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.17%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PAOK FC
Greek Super League
06.09.26	Panathinaikos - PAOK	3:1 ✺
Greek Cup
02.09.26	PAOK - OFI	0:0 ✺
Greek Super League
30.08.26	Atromitos Athens - PAOK	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Brann - PAOK	3:2 ✺
Greek Super League
23.08.26	PAOK - Levadiakos	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWLW
- Aris Thessaloniki
Greek Cup
10.09.26	Asteras Tripolis - Aris	1:1 ✺
Greek Super League
05.09.26	AEK Athens - Aris	5:0 ✺
30.08.26	Aris - OFI	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Kalamata - Aris	2:3 ✺
Greek Cup
17.08.26	Anagennisi Karditsa - Aris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
08.02.26	Aris - PAOK	0:0
07.12.25	PAOK - Aris	3:1
Greek Cup
03.12.25	Aris - PAOK	1:1
Greek Super League
19.01.25	Aris - PAOK	0:0
29.09.24	PAOK - Aris	0:1
19.05.24	Aris - PAOK	1:2
10.03.24	PAOK - Aris	0:1

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