Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 27

Date: 8 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Costa R. (Por)


	Paços de Ferreira		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.7	Watch
	2.75	3	2.6
	2.65	3	2.65
	2.91	3.1	2.77
	2.8	2.9	2.7
	2.76	3.08	2.73	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.67)	3.03 ↓ (3.08)	2.7 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
34%

Draw
31.1%

Famalicão
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

30%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

29.5%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Paços de Ferreira aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Famalicão will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 9).

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 17 (56.06%), project points - 24, currently - 17, a good chance of relegated (86%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Famalicão has the most likely position - 11 (16.98%), project points - 43, currently - 33, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 44, small importance 14, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Delgado J. (Yellow Cards) Marafona (Red Card)

There will not play in Famalicão: Fonseca T. (Injury) Puma (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Mihaj E. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
01.04.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Arouca - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Paços de Ferreira - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
06.03.23	Casa Pia - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
26.02.23	Paços de Ferreira - Boavista	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTWLL
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
03.04.23	Famalicão - Arouca	0:1 ✺
19.03.23	Boavista - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
13.03.23	Famalicão - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
03.03.23	Benfica - Famalicão	2:0 ✺
24.02.23	Famalicão - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
22.10.22	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	2:1
16.01.22	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	0:0
08.08.21	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	2:0
04.04.21	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	2:0
27.11.20	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	2:0
23.02.20	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	2:1
Taça de Portugal
15.01.20	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	0:1

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